Have you ever played the game "would you rather"? It seems like a really simple game. You are presented with two scenarios and you simply pick one or the other. Simple at the surface, but as you dig into the game you start to realize just how complex it can be. Suddenly, it's not just an easy choice between two things, it's mapping out scenarios, analyzing cause and effect, all kinds of complex stuff that you don't see at first.
There is a reason the game is so impactful and still gets played even today. In fact, I'm pretty sure @tarazkp has alluded to the fact that he plays this game quite frequently with is daughter @smallsteps. It's a poignant game and it has all the pieces required to build a growing mind.
I saw a meme the other day that has literally been haunting me as I consider all the facets to what at the base level seems like a simple question. You've probably seen the meme yourself, but maybe you never really gave it a second thought. It goes something like this:
The iconic blue pill and red pill from The Matrix movie. You take one pill, you get 10 BTC right now. You take the other pill you get to go back to 2010 with all the knowledge you have now.
It seems like a no brainer right? At least from a fiscal standpoint and given the price of BTC right now, going back to 2010 is the most obvious choice, but as you think about it, things get a bit more murky. I met my wife in 2007, so I wouldn't have to worry about that too much. Of course, if you met your significant other after 2010, it might be a bit of a gray area for you.
Plus, you need to consider the fact that you need to basically wait 12 years before you see any kind of return. Let's say you took $1000 and you bought into BTC when it was $.004. I know you probably could have gotten it cheaper than that or just mined it, but let's run with this scenario. That gives you 250,000 BTC.
Now, let's say you have to wait until 2017 when we saw the first really impressive top to BTC at around $17,000. If you sell it all, that gives you something like $4.2 Billion Dollars. Like I said though, that's a lot of time to wait. What do you do with those 12+ years knowing you have to wait until now or the recent $120K mark.
Obviously, you would sell some of it and make some investments. Perhaps you would just rack up a bunch of debt so you aren't wasting those years since you know you would be able to pay it back eventually.
There are all kinds of ways you can play this. Sell 100,000 tokens in 2017 at $17,000. That gives you $1.7 Billion dollars to invest in NVIDIA, Gamestop, or LUNA (as long as you get out in time). Remember, you know what is going to happen. Then you still have 150,000 BTC sitting around for when it hits $100K or $200K.
Like I said, from a fiscal point of view, it's kind of a no brainer. Heck, if you think about it, HIVE might not even exist in that scenario. Like I would have moved a bunch of money into STEEM and with the stake I would have held, Justin Sun wouldn't have had a chance, even with the exchanges at his back.
However, there are a lot more moral or philosophical aspects to consider. My wife and I lost our dog of 15 years a couple of years ago, would I want to live through that pain again? What about loved ones we have lost between now and then, not to mention other heartbreaks. Sure, you might try to stop some of them, but at that point you are just kind of playing with fate and risking looking like a crazy person.
On the flip side, 10 BTC if BTC gets closer to $200K would give me a pretty comfortable life. Plus you don't have to relive any of the drama, heartbreak, or stress that you dealt with since 2010. Of course, you don't get to relive all the joy either.
See how complex this can get?
It's honestly a bit ridiculous the amount of thought I have put into this over the past few days since I saw that meme. Just imagine if I actually applied that brain power to something actually productive. It's actually a bit embarrassing.
So let's see what you have to say about it. Go ahead and make your choice in the little poll I created, but also go a step further and explain why you made your choice in the comments. You don't need to write a book (please don't write a book), but just give a basic rundown. If the comments aren't enough, make your own post! Go ahead and throw it The Pub, just make sure you follow the community guidelines.
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I never even thought about the money. You can keep the BTC. I don't want to go back. I would take the opportunity to fix a few things I messed up. If you would lend me an eraser, I could erase those things I regret and redo. I'd like to go farther back, though. A lot of erasing to do.
Not life, though. Not all those years relived. The thought of it makes me weary.
I think for a lot of people the new unknowns would outweigh the things that you know for certain.
Back in time for sure :)
Very complex indeed, but before I can answer the question below, I do have another question.
Will my wife also be 10 years younger? :)
My guess is it would be her at that point in time ten years ago. So yes, she would be ten years younger, but she wouldn't have the knowledge that you do of the coming ten years.
Than I would choise that option :)
Sometimes I often think about it the available free time I had when I was young(er) but the money and the knowledge of today. That would have been a blast. But we can't change the history. We may not forget that the history made us what we are today.
That's a very fair point. I might not be the person I am today. Money certainly has a way of changing people and things.
I'd go back to 2010 for sure. I dont think you would have to wait long to make a lot of money. You could trade your way to millions just knowing the bull and bear cycles and then invest that money in all kinds of stocks to keep you going. I wouldn't need a billion $ to be satisfied. 50-100 mill would be more than enough for me. To be honest even with 10 million 10 years ago Im pretty sure id be able to live very comfortably the rest of my life, even without having knowledge on how the stock market was going to do. Even just normal conservative investing strategies can turn 10 million into a lot more over time.
Yeah, those are good points. Like I said, I could live pretty comfortably off 1 or 2 million where I live, so I don't know how much I would actually change. I think about the potential experiences I could have had, but I also have to consider the experiences I actually did have and I don't know if the trade off is worth it.
Yeah, those are fair points as well.
In this scenario do you get to keep your memories of your past life or just the knowledge of the world and how to predict what will happen?
Hmm, that's a good question. It never really specified in the meme. My assumption was you would get to keep all your memories if you are retaining your knowledge as they kind of go hand in hand at some points.
Hehehe, I'd go back to 2010, although thinking about it, I only had one year in 2010, so I don't think I would have done much; I just would have stopped buying sweets and saved up. But I don't know, thinking about it, I think I went back from 2036 to 2026 and I see myself buying a ton of Hive right now, but the best part is that I don't remember anything about my future; I'm just living my 2026. The only information I have is something that tells me to buy a ton of Hive.
That is definitely a different way to look at it! I will admit, this thought exercise probably doesn't work as well for the younger folks like it does for the older generation!
If I knew what I know today, going back to 2010 would be my choice. And I'll explain why. It's not just about Bitcoin. My maternal grandmother, who raised me when I was little, passed away in May 2012, and my father in September 2012. If I had the opportunity to hug them again, it would be worth more to me than anything I could have in the future or the present. I know it's a childish answer, but that's what really comes to mind. You can't be so simplistic in this game, I know that. The implications of suffering a second farewell to both of them... all the pain of mourning. But I would definitely choose the second option. I would take the red pill.
That's fair, I can absolutely respect that!
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Other than my health challenges I wouldn't change much. I also wouldn't want to relive the pain of loss either. So I'll take the 10 BTC now and walk.
It's interesting how as you think about it more the less amount of money becomes a bit more attractive.
I chose the first option, 10 BTC right away.
Because with the amount of knowledge I currently have about Bitcoin (which is basically close to zero), I probably wouldn't have managed to get rich off it back then… or now either, haha. And honestly, even if we include knowledge in some other areas, probably not then either xD.
Okay, I'll be serious now.
What influenced my decision the most was the part where you said you met your wife earlier, which made the choice easier for you. I met my fiancé in 2019, so I was guided by that. Although… if we believe God arranges everything and that we're soulmates, we would probably still find each other even if I went back to 2010, just a bit wiser than I am today. If I even am. xD
Really interesting question. Let's say I'm sticking with the first answer; at least for the next few seconds before I change my mind. I'm hitting the reply button quickly.
I think that's fair. I don't question the idea of soul mates, but billions of dollars could be a big roadblock between what you think you want and what you actually need. You may have still found each other, but it could have taken a much longer time. Time that I would personally consider wasted. Thanks for your awesome answer and explanation!
I will always choose knowledge over money and if I could go back to 2010 with what I know now, I could make 1m BTC, not 10 😆 There are a lot of reasons why I would chose this option, but I don't want to write a book 😜
To be fair, you'd still keep all the knowledge, plus the 10 BTC. I think it's more about trading experiences for money. That and how much money do we really need?