When I read a post like this I think of my mother. She didn't understand geology or astrophysics (neither do I). However, I don't think I ever saw anyone do more with less. If she had a candy bar, she'd break it up into pieces and let it last several days. Something like a paper towel would be anathema to her. She saved water, even when there was lots of water. In a consumer oriented society, she was an anomaly.
Maybe we will still run out of resources, but if we all had my mother's frugal perspective, maybe we could push those projections down the road.
Also, given the graphs you provide, do we really need more people on earth, consuming more resources??? Maybe we should rethink natalist philosophy?
For that reason, your mother is perhaps a more environmentally conscious person than a lot of us. The point never is whether we will run out, because that is a certainty; the point always is when and how long. With better technology and prudent use of natural resources we can certain make it last through my lifetime (I am 49), perhaps to some extent my daughters life-time; but that is about it. At that point in time we would have consumed most of the natural resources of this planet, and we have to look elsewhere. It is highly likely we won't be able to take most of the population, in theory most will perish long before. If we are lucky as a species, there could be a potential future where a very small group of lucky species can leave this planet. However, I see no reason to hope or celebrate that outcome, even if that is a distant possibility.
There is no magic bullet? No genius (yet to be born) who will think of a way to make energy out of waste? Was this always our destiny, that we are so clever, so prolific that we consume resources of the earth until we are extinct?
all of that is already happening, and all of that is taken into account. We also assume the goodness in people and stable benevolent government :) :) I mean the best case social hypothesis is assumed and yet it is very hard to see beyond say 2070 :)
Mind you, extinction for a natural historian like me is like turning a page of a book.
In fact a proper mass extinction, where 95% of the planet's life goes dead is a great scenario for a long term sustainability of the planet. It is the best case scenario from a point of view of a geologist :) but I didn't want to say it earlier.
You do know mass extinctions are common in the geologic past. Those are the 'magic bullet' you talk about.
I guess it's sort of like our own death. We know about it every day of our lives, and yet, we get up in the morning.
yes, we call it natural instinct, or survival :)
That Darwin guy knew something! :)