I find it very useful to consider myself Mr. Average when it comes to trying to figure out what course of actions others "in aggregate" may take.
I never have inside info, I am not a genius and I have all the psychological biases that come with this monkey brain.
Putting that belief into some kind of actionable strategy is another thing though, it's hard to remain truly objective and Vulcan.
The best I can do is try to avoid the worst excesses of the crowd
As long as you can average out in the aggregate you are likely fine.