Average buy price for BTC is 5361 USD

in Technical Analysis4 years ago

In today's post and trading idea, I will share an analysis I made about $BTC. This is regarding the 4 yearly cycle.
The charts below were obtained using BITSTAMP BTC/USD chart and Heiken Ashi Candles on a Weekly timeframe


To be considered a cycle,
• Higher than the previous cycle
• Retraced to 0.618 and below: This qualifies to hunting the start of new upcoming cycle.
 Even if it hits retraces first to 0.618 but it didn’t shoot high above the previous cycle, then we don’t consider the last cycle as terminated./completed.
 If it goes past the all-time high and retraces but didn’t hit 0.618 at minimum, then the cycle is still on.

The Fib numbers to buy are

  • 0.618
  • 0.65
  • 0.786
  • 0.886

this is for SPOT BUYING and it is meant to be a HODL strategy.

THE FIRST CYCLE(LINE 2:In the table above)


This retraced to 0.618 and 0.65 Fib, but it didnt retrace to 0.786 and 0.886 Fib. An average buy at the Fib 0.618 and 0.65 is 7.435 USD. All time high was 259.71 USD (08 April 2013). Nice profit :)

THE SECOND CYCLE(LINE 3:In the table above)


This retraced to 0.618, 0.65 and 0.786 Fib, but it didnt retrace to 0.886 Fib. An average buy at the Fib 0.618, 0.65, 0.786 is 86.63 USD. All time high was 1163 USD (25 Nov 2013). Sweet :)

THE THIRD CYCLE(LINE 4:In the table above)


This retraced to 0.618, 0.65, 0.786, and 0.886 Fib. An average buy at the Fib 0.618, 0.65, 0.786 and 0.886 is 342.28 USD. The all time high was 19733 USD (11 Dec 2017). Excellent profit.Hahahaha.

This is what we are all waiting for. Now, following the analogy and technical idea in the previous cycles, we can see that a buy at the Fib 0.618, 0.65, 0.786 will give an average buy of 6351.22 USD.
Whereas if we have a buy at Fib 0.618, 0.65,0.786 and 0.886 level, then an average buy will be 5361.2 USD.

Therefore, as an investor and a long hodl individual, our average buy entry targetting the end of the Fourth cycle should be either 6351.22 or 5361.2 USD.
This is worth the target of hundreds of thousands USD.

My recommendation:
After getting your average entry, always sell your capital (or plus some gains) at 0.382 or 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the same retracement that you bought at 0.618, (i.e.: from your Average entry). Leave the rest to multiply.

In another word, the Fibonacci retracement of the last cycle that has numbers from 0 to 1, buy at its 0.618 to 0.886 and sell to cover your average entry and some profit at 0.316 or 0.236.

Be ready to have some serious patience.

Kindly, inform your next of kin, you don’t want to hide wealth if you are no more ☹.

ND: Not determined
ATH: All time high

©Turpsy March14, 2020


An avrege buy between 5.3 and 6.3k should be very good incase we have a bullish scenario coimming to btc and crypto as a whole.
Very detailed post! great work :D!

Yes, you are right, well we hope the bullish scenerio becomes apparent soon and increase the valuation of crypto assets. Thank you.