I agree with your assessment. I think the swiftness and ease of the Venezuelan raid gave false confidence of how easy Iran would be to conquer. I found the analysis, below, of what's going on in Iran a few days ago. It was written by someone I follow on social media:
Trump’s latest war moves are pretty brilliant. The guy definitely understands leverage—how to gain it, and how to exploit it.
This weekend Trump did two important things to gain and exploit leverage:
He threaten to destroy Iran’s oil distribution facility on Kharg island, through which 90% of its oil flows to the international community, if Iran continues attempts to shut down the Strait of Hormuz; and
He invited an international armada, including especially China, to join the US in policing the Strait of Hormuz and preventing attacks on it by Iran.
If the oil distribution system on Kharg Island is destroyed, nobody gets hurt worse than Iran, but China is a close second. By comparison, the US would hardly feel it, and even that small pain could be mitigated if Trump wanted by (a) implementing a US oil export ban, and (b) suspending the Jones Act. Those two acts alone would decouple US oil prices from international prices, and the US would have a glut of oil and gas at very low price while the rest of the world suffers.
So, Trump has put China (and Iran and Europe) in a double bind. Either China turns on its “ally”, Iran, and joins the US and the rest of the world in protecting shipping through the strait, or it declines to do so and risks having its oil flow disrupted for years to come. This move also calls Europe’s bluff. It can no longer pretend to oppose US action in the Middle East and instead must join or cede control over Iran’s oil and the strait exclusively to the US. And it puts Iran in an impossible position—attempt to close the Strait and lose effectively all oil revenue indefinitely, or decline to do so and lose its only remaining point of leverage over the international community.
Trump may ultimately decide to simply take and occupy Kharg Island instead of destroying its infrastructure. That move puts more US troops at some risk, but also ensures that oil continues to flow on terms the US dictates (including US dollar sales only). At that point the vast majority of the world’s oil supply would effectively be under US control—the US itself, Venezuela, Iran, and Saudi Arabia (which is loyal to Trump at this point) would all be more or less controlled by the US. And you can soon enough add Alberta, Canada’s oil to that list.
Friends, there’s no chance that China can successfully invade Taiwan under these conditions. None. And very little chance that it will even try.
Trump has China checkmated. Economically and militarily.
This person has, clearly, been indoctrinated into the mindset that Trump can do no wrong. There are several different reasons floating around about of why the US did invaded Iran—to prevent nuclear weapons development, for control of the oil, because Netanyahu wanted us to, to further enrich defense contractors, etc. Time will tell what the true reasons were but I think a lot of people just conjure and search for excuses/explanations to support their belief system. Most simply don't choose to (or can't) see the situation objectively. I think, as US citizens, we'll be lucky if we get out of this war without paying a heavy price. The longer it goes on the more risk there will be. Nevertheless, I really wish we could move beyond attempting to solve our differences in this way.
That's why I meticulously researched this blog. I wasn't looking for affirmation of my beliefs. This was actually a search for truth. Sometimes I begin a research blog like this, and change my mind. Unfortunately, information I found was surprising, and reinforced my view...for example, the secret flights taking Palestinians from Gaza. Anyone who disagrees with my perspective is welcome to show how my logic is flawed--given the record. It's all there. Inconvenient for some, maybe, but clear.
I think we are already paying a heavy price--in world prestige, in relations with our Gulf allies, in NATO influence, in national debt and loss of life. But it's only begun. Consider the huge supplemental appropriation he's asking for now. And all those soldiers, heading toward the Middle East.
A thoughtful blog, with a historical perspective, on this subject: @azircon https://peakd.com/hive-180505/@azircon/cost-pyramid. Sobering.
I see the tragedy of this war and I am very disheartened. I try not to obsess, but it's always in the background.
Oh, I wasn't implying that's what you did here. I was just saying a lot of people just double-down and justify their own beliefs when presented with new information. We live in an age where people want so badly to believe in mythical figures that will save them and always be one step ahead of their adversaries. Leaders are just people with some good ideas, some bad ideas, some personality traits that are helpful, and some that are harmful.
I think we are paying a heavy price and this Iran war could lead to a global financial meltdown followed by a complete economic reset. It also could deplete our resources to the point we can't defend ourselves. Thank you for the link! I'll read that blog today.
I didn't misunderstand you. We are having a discussion about a most serious thing. It's good that we can discuss this. More of us have to do that, with good will and open minds. I really appreciate your thoughtful and insightful feedback.
Oh good! I agree that we need to be more comfortable, especially expressing the truth of how we feel about these things. So many people self-censor now. I appreciate you bringing it up!
Did we mention price?
20 days into it and 'they' are already asking 200 Billion dollars to the congress.
I say the ask is 'informal' and 'conservative'. The dude said in the next sentence, "subject to change".
We are looking at multiple Trillions, and that is a conservative estimate. I am not talking in thin air, just making myself aware of similar wars in the past.
The total cost of the U.S. war and occupation in Afghanistan (2001–2021) is estimated to be approximately $2.3 trillion. If you consider all the associate post 9/11 wars, it is 8 Trillion. Brown has done significant academic research on the topic.
https://www.brown.edu/news/2021-09-01/costsofwar
Mind you, both Iraq and Afghanistan are smaller and less complex countries compared to Iran. I rest my case.
PS: couldn't stop but add this infographic!
https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/costs/economic/other-costs-us-economy
I try to keep a healthy balance. Make dinner. Take care of the dog. Watch a movie. But it's hard to keep this out of my peripheral awareness, all the time. There's talk about gas prices, like that's the problem. It's so much bigger than that. Gas is a symptom, not the worst of where all this may take us. I think of the people who brought their lawn chairs to the Battle of Bull Run. Little did they know what was coming....
What is coming? :)
8 Trillion dollars of expenses
My kids will be in debt and probably will have to pay for it all their lives.