This is great analysis.
I think that Gate 5 will be hard to achieve if it requires Mars to completely independently produce its own microchips at nanometer scale. There is only one factory of one company on Earth that produces the machines that allow nanometer scale chips to be made.
You raise a good point. I don't think materials will be a problem once mining is in full swing, but the machines are a factor.
A couple of things may mitigate this.
It may be a hill to climb, but I don't think it's impassable.