Do you think that the cause of the periodicity of this phenomenon in the United States is perhaps related to the US government's ability to fund, promote and place on so many fronts at the same time? That is, foreign policy tensions with China, high tariffs, the support of war conflicts and the speculative housing market, among many other causes?
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To make rigorous that A -> B is quite hard. For these type of problems you would have to define a directed acyclic graph (DAG) for how different components are related and then hope that the given data is sufficient to ensure that there are no confounds that spoil your hypothesis test.
I recommend this lecture series on the topic:
Thanks @mathowl!!