So after this last hard fork, the HBD in the DHF is removed from the base for the HIVE inflation. I was eager to see how will this affect the debt and started looking around and at first I saw the virtual supply that all the api return the same high number as prior to the HF. Had some comment discussions with @howo and looked into the core code.
Thing is the HBD in the DHF for debt calcuclation was removed a while ago, and I knew that and was awere of that. You dont calcualted 34M HBD as debt, but 34 - 23 (DHF), equals 11M HBD excluding the DHF.
BUT what i was missing is exclduing the HBD in the DHF from the denominator as well. From the virtual supply that is used to get the market cap for HIVE. There is no api or any official docs for it, so if you dont dig directly in the source code there is no way to know. And also the way debt is calculated in the source code is not dividing the market cap of HBD with the market cap of HIVE (virtual HIVE), but dividing the virtual HIVE from HBD exclduing DHF with the overall virtual HIVE.
Thing is HIVE now has so many data points for its supply, with no clear explanations anywhere, and trying to be polite here, but the hive tokenomics are now convoluted, complex, and almost impossible to follow if you are not deep into the source code. Not sure how we will even sugest to serious investors to buy some without a ton of disclaimers, and explanations ....
Example of the curent HIVE supply with the multiple options:
- 469M HIVE - available HIVE supply (hive tokens 501M exclduing the HIVE tokens in the DHF 32M),
- 501M HIVE - regular HIVE supply (actual HIVE tokens curenlty in exsitnace in all wallets including DHF),
- 611M virtual HIVE supply excluding the HBD in the DHF HIVE (501M HIVE plus 11M HBD converted to virtual HIVE at a feed price of 0.102, equal 110M HIVE),
- 840M HIVE virtual HIVE supply, what every hive block explorer shows and the main api (501M HIVE plus 34M HBD converted to virtual HIVE at a feed price of 0.102 equals 340M HIVE)
Choose your suppply :)
Debt is calcualted as 110M / 611M = 18%.
The 110M HIVE comes from the 11M HBD, and the 611M is the number 3 on the list above. Its not market cap of HBD and HIVE, but virtual HIVE tokens.
BTW the main change with the last HF is the switch from point 4 to pont 3 when calculating the inflation, so instead of 840M * 6% = 50M, we now have 611M * 6% = 37M.
Also at this point I'm nots sure do we use anyahwere the number four, and why woould we presneted it so up and front as the default.
Anyways, the debt is higher now, and it has been historicly higher than prenseted on hbdstats.com, I have corected the curent data, the gauge chart, will to a recalculation on the historical data soon as well.
P.S. both my web and the @ausbitbank web that shows hive debt data, both have been wrong with years, since HF 24. Both are listed on hive.io.
Official repo calculations:
https://gitlab.syncad.com/hive/hive/-/blob/master/libraries/chain/database.cpp?ref_type=heads#L4869
Damn ... this should have been a short one :)
Honestly.. Hive inflation should really just be calculated from actual circulating supply only aka the first option.
I don't even understand why we're adding HBD into the equation when really HIVE and HBD should be entirely separate beside the conversion functions being the only link.
Inflation would then at least be predictable (Except for the fact HBD conversions to hive are inflationary which would be the only way they become inflationary in fact).
We won't have any issues with inflation running rampant due to HBD when at low prices at all then.
or at least reduce it 15% is damn crazy and scam levels. Just out here printing tokens to print tokens it makes no sense and is very poor management of the hive token.
Another not so great thing for hive lol these so called "leaders" here on hive need to seriously start acting in a way that benefits the eco system.
Thanks for digging into this. Seems complicated indeed, and has substantial implications for the economy. Do you know which of the four kinds of supply you listed is used for calculating the inflation?
No 3
Thanks. Then that means that currently, HBD created for interest payments leads to increased inflation, and HBD paid by the DHF also leads to increased inflation, right?
Yes, those are not programatic
Right, but I phrased my question poorly. What I meant to ask is that if let's say 100 HBD is created for APR interest payments, or 100 HBD is paid out from the DHF, then this 100 HBD basically increases the virtual supply. So, on top of the 100 HBD created, we now have regular programmatic inflation based off of the higher virtual supply.
So let's say tomorrow someone came in and bought HIVE and turned it into 100 million HBD. Then this 100 million HBD is now like a fixed part of the virtual supply, independent of the price of HIVE. So now we have regular programmatic inflation based on this increased virtual supply. (Even if the price of HIVE goes down, the virtual supply will still remain increased.)
Does this sound right?
I try to keep it up but confess I feel always lost on track.
Thanks for the insights