I just had a discussion with @progressivechef about this the other day. I think one of the reasons new users don't stick around is the rewards or lack thereof for new users. When a new user comes on and takes time to write a fantastic post and then gets a penny of upvotes, then watches as others post a meme or a steps report and get over $100 in upvotes. Even if the new user gets curied once in a while for their great posts, it has to be extremely disheartening. Many of the whales may think seeing posts with high money values would be encouraging, as in "here is what you can get if you stick with it" but I think it has the opposite effect, discouraging and ultimately chasing new users away.
That is keeping people. And I think it is a huge problem. I know it's always been a problem—I remember people discussing it 4 years ago when I joined Steemit—but it is one we have never managed to solve.
As for attracting people, I agree with your ideas.
A fair few people can do well on a first post if it gets attention, but following that up can be hard. Hive is not always 'fair' and there are all sorts of reasons why certain people make a lot. I do okay from those who choose to support me. We need to set realistic expectations and make it clear it is not a 'magic money tree'. The higher price does help, but can encourage spammy behaviour and various forms of abuse. Some of us look out for that.
Sure, I agree with that. There shouldn't be an expectation of magic money nor of huge upvotes for every post. The people who understand that end up sticking around, like I have and like you have. But regardless of whether we agree with it, I think that is ultimately is what prevents high user retention here. Even if we stress again and again this isn't magic money, you have to work to build an audience, you have to network, etc, even if we do everything we can to set realistic expectations; people nod yes, but then see the high upvotes on low-effort posts and get discouraged. I agree it shouldn't happen, but it does, and solving this without also encouraging spam is the trick that we have to figure out how to solve.