The HIVE token is hemorrhaging uncontrollably this year, and not only isn't stopping, but it's speeding up. It has now fallen to a new all-time low against the US Dollar, and also in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, like sister token BLURT.
You probably heard that HIVE hit a new all-time low of 9 cents (it even as low as 3 cents on one exchange) a couple weeks ago. Some would argue this is just a symptom of the cyclic nature of cryptos - "we're at a low but it will bounce back". So let's price it in other cryptos, to see if this is just a market correction, or if HIVE is crumbling to dust.
There's the price, going all the way back to day 1, in BTC (on a log scale).
Damn.
I don't think there's any ambiguity here - HIVE is a dying/dead token. A failed crypto experiment. All-time lows against every other currency means something. It means in a race to the bottom, you're winning. You get the "fastest dropper" trophy. You're the smelliest turd in the bowl.
And it's only getting worse. The speed of capitulation is increasing, held back only by HIVE's 13 week (quarter year) power-down delay. As soon as the funds are available, whales and minnows alike are dumping HIVE for anything else they can get their hands on.
"You're wrong, DRutter! It's just a bear market! All cryptos are down!"
Okay, let's draw in the last 2 (current and 2021) bull markets on that chart:
In the previous crypto bull market, which was essentially the whole of 2021, HIVE outperformed Bitcoin. This is what you'd expect for a smaller market during a period of capital inflows to the crypto sphere.
But that's really the only time HIVE has done well. It had a dramatic and painful decline during the crypto bear market of 2022, which didn't stop when things turned bullish again in 2023 and 2024. 2025 has seen another crypto bull market, and HIVE did initially appear to outperform again as it had before. But something snapped in January, and HIVE has done nothing but nosedive ever since, now at a brand new all-time low, and plunging lower.
So it's not just a crypto bear market. Something's wrong with HIVE - it's falling fast against fiat AND crypto currencies. There's no second bull market for HIVE.
What happened to HIVE in January?
A period of steady brisk rotation into BLURT is what happened. And it hasn't let up.
Here's BLURT priced in HIVE over the past 6 months:
HIVE literally can't win for even a day against BLURT. The pressure is on, with huge orders on the exchanges, dumping HIVE for BLURT at an ever-decreasing rate. Not a single retracement all year! HIVE either holds its ground against BLURT, or it gives up ground. It never gains, and that's something new since January.
HIVE is dying in every currency, by every measuring stick. This isn't a buying opportunity, it's the death of a blockchain community and currency.
Crashing in EVERY timeframe
HIVE's price chart is red (down) on every single timeframe (24h, 7d, 1m, 3m, 1y, all-time) right now.
24h -1.5%
7d -2%
1m -25%
3m -43%
1y -26%
"Yeah well BLURT isn't doing much better!"
Actually, BLURT is doing a whole lot better.
24h +0.5%
7d +2.5%
1m -10%
3m -19%
1y +2.5%
BLURT has actually been one of the best-performing cryptos over the past year, right up there with BTC. BLURT is well off its lows, and actually participating in the bull market, ready to join any alt-season action we see. But HIVE is currently sitting at its all-time low, both in dollars and in Bitcoin. I doubt even a strong alt-season right now could turn the HIVE flaming zeppelin crash around. This was supposed to be HIVE's big moment. Instead, sentiment has never been worse, and the blockchain community itself is dissolving.
And if you're thinking it looks so much better priced in fiat currencies, feast your eyes upon the USD chart going back to the very start:
Over the past 5.5 years, in which the USD lost 30% of its purchasing power, HIVE has lost an additional 22% against the USD.
I'm not saying you should sell your HIVE for BLURT, necessarily. But if you choose to own any HIVE from this point forward, you can't say you haven't been warned.
DRutter
The question is how much of the Hive price comes from people buying Hive in order to have influence tokens over PeakD and Ecency, or for actually economic use? There are many low fee coins with much better adoption and a much higher market cap. Marketcap is highly correlated with a tighter difference between the sell and buy price on exchanges. We see acceptance for Bitcoin, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Dash and Monero across the Internet. If they accept only a few cryptocurrencies, they will accept one of these five.
If I want to pay for something in Hive:
If I want to pay for something with Bitcoin or Bitcoin cash,
Now with the fees being so low with five of these, they compete with free, I don't think Economic activity using Hive supports its price.
So, then there is influence on several platforms where everyone uses cryptocurrency. I remember what happened on Twitter and Facebook with censorship and yet brand new platforms (Gab and Parler) sprung up rather than people coming over to Hive.
The rewards attracted me at first but in the end it was a bane.
Hive was never seen as an altcoin for me. It is more of an appcoin. You can use it for influence on Ecency and PeakD simultaneously. As mainline platforms are acting more open, there is less need for platforms with less network effect
Someone I follow stopped posting for a year or so. When he posted here again recently, it got downvoted automatically by a bot, including comments. There is poor stewardship of the value of the app when these flag wars are not countered. A whale could invest in an auto counter vote for downvotes not accompanied by explanations, or they could practice better oversight on their current quality control bots.
The whales stand to lose the most. Business sense would have them improve the appeal of the platform. My friend said he can post free content elsewhere and I haven't heard from him since.
Ouch, 9 cents is rough! 📉 Hoping for a bounce back soon. Stay strong, Hivers! 💪