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RE: The Game Theory Behind Speculator Fees

in #hive3 years ago

I tried to think about these entry/exit/instant-pd fees from game theory point of view. I agree, in theory, these fees can add value to long term holders. However, the problem I see is that fees will discourage majority of people from powering up.

I don't think it will encourage people to power up. There are already incentives like certain percentage of inflation goes to the HP holder, but I doubt any of the HP holder really care about that, since they aren't that significant.

I agree anything that adds more value and benefits to HP holders is good. But not sure it can be achieved with fees. It may make sense from whales' and speculators' point of view when these costs can be offset by the potential profits. However, for an ordinary participants with less than orca/whale funds to invest, this will serve as a discouragement from powering up.

13-weeks power down already does that. There are many who don't power up just because of this reason. People keep misunderstanding this 13-week pd obstacle as presenting as long term investor vs short term investor thing. In reality, it is about psychology of knowing that one cannot withdraw funds quickly when needed. I would even argue with shorter period power-down, more people will hold their Hive as HP for a much longer time, just because they know they can get out when they need to.

That's why 4-week power down makes sense. Ideally, the shortest possible pd time would be best. But at least 4-week serves as some kind of compromise to keep everybody happy. While yes 4-weeks is still long time, but the fact large sums are already released in one week maybe just enough of confidence to power up.

Also, these percentages are very high. Let's say I have $100K to invest. I probably would not power up knowing I would have to pay $5k as a fee. I also probably would not power up knowing I will have to pay $10k to withdraw my money.

In my opinion, Hive Power serves as alternative to other forms of investments. Many people hold assets like Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, etc. They just hold, not doing anything with them. Question is how would we attract them to park their assets as Hive Power? Why should they go with Hive Power when there are assets that keep appreciating in value. Fees wouldn't do that, long period lock ups wouldn't do that.

If we continue to have power up periods, yes it makes complete sense to have some sort of mechanism for instant or near instant full power down even with fees and certain security measures in place. Maybe 3-4% would be reasonable.

Having the lowest power down period possible would be the best. Free market works best when there is more freedom provided for the participants on how to handle their assets. Security vs Freedom arguments have been around for a long time. I think if we really wanted to, we can have both. And that can be the innovation of Hive that will attract many to join. Everybody wins!

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Excluding all other fees, an exit fee is still required if you want an instant power down for network security purposes. 4 weeks vs. 13 weeks is good for those that want a quicker free power down, but for investors that like to capture market volatility it does nothing for them. What I'm proposing is allowing investors the chance to enjoy market volatility all while benefiting long-term power holders.

If we exclude the 5% fee for powering up, which I said I'm happy to do, this option does zero to discourage people from powering up compared to the current system. Because this is optional. So one could opt=out of this feature, and their hive life would not change at all except they would get more Hive rewards.

Hear me out, if you want to be a speculator, you should have coins on exchange ready to push that sell or buy button.

If you are choosing to power up for 13 weeks you are telling everyone on Hive that “these coins are locked and cant be sold unless I start to power down.”

If we can choose to pay whatever % to cash out at any moments notice to power down then we are stripping away one of the few things that makes Hive speculation interesting. At the same time those who lose their keys can now lose everything immediately because of this new function.

I am sure the 5% entry fee will never get any significant support, and the 10% instant power down is not necessary because participants have the choice to not power up their whole bag if they want to speculate on the side.

We need more buyers than sellers. We have perpetual nonstop selling coming from inflation and curation/author rewards. That’s what we are up against, we need perpetual buying pressure that exceeds inflation+ salaries for everyone.

Ok, I understand it better now. The more options for users the better. Thanks.

and you can hold all liquid and pay nothing. But have all benefits.

Do you mean liquid Hive? What are the benefits for holding liquid Hive?

no fees at all if power-up would cost 5% and power down 10%.

the % you can earn are not worth IMO. The only thing that would happen is power up less.

Also with a defi that comes for sure at one time, liquid hive would generate some returns too.

And if you want hive power, leasing would be a solution. Should be also cheaper as the fees.

There seems to be some confusion on the exit tax. The exit tax is if you want to power down instantly. It's optional. The 13 weeks are still free. So nothing changes except you give people a way to instantly power down that simultaneously benefits all remaining Hive holders.

If we do a combined power down like my proposal and charge gov votes over 13 weeks, we would receive the same effect. Hive would be at this point a less emotional investment as it is today.

2 independent power up times can be a solution. From security points it would be pretty much the same ( even more secure because of 13 weeks for gov).

Also for wallet security because of the 2 power down times the user can decide.

Would be cool if you give me some feedback. I would be also open to talking with you about it if you like :)

BTW @theycallmedan, I know you are deep in defi and hot cryptos. You maybe think at some point make a fund we can follow you? Would be an awesome thing between social + finance :)

If the HBD cap works can open new doors for stuff like this :).

Btw, I would ape in with some funds :) Special in bull markets :D haha