Opinion:
Key word here is 'could' though. That would be a long-term possibility not short-term. In all honesty, the majority of my STEEM and HIVE existed on exchanges and I've been buying BTC, even at a premium. I ultimately expect both STEEM and HIVE to go below $0.10. Not trying to FUD, just my genuine opinion. I think the real beneficiary here is Bitcoin.
Hive proponents want people to think that the vast majority of Steem moved over to Hive. That is simply not true, many people are divided or determined to ride the wave with Steem. You have to look at the powerdowns/ups to see how people really feel. Does it look like a mass exit from Steem to Hive? Not if you look at the powerdown/up data.
Also, the diehard "bees" will prop up the value and volume of HIVE while they have STEEM to power down, but what about after that 13 weeks? Hive does not get to inherit years of branding, Bitcoin is still beating every fork of it ever made, despite the fact that it has no technological advantage. Hive looks like it is succeeding right now, but in a year from now it could be in the same position as whaleshares, and then all the people that swapped their STEEM for HIVE go bust. I'm not trying to say that will happen, just that it could. Another possibility is that this split was so damaging to both blockchains that a third competitor wins out such as Pepo, Voice, Minds, Arweaver, Bluesky or something else.
A big consideration for me too is that tBTC is launching on Ethereum on April 27th and I expect that to make BTC and ETH prices soar well past the rest of the market. Why hold STEEM or HIVE when I could double or triple them in a month? If you compare this contentious fork to the BCH/BSV fork, I sold my BCH right before the split at the high of $550, and after the split both coins maintained their value for only a little while and then combined their value was around $90 and $220 together. I expect that to happen with STEEM and HIVE, so its not unrealistic to see prices like $0.07 STEEM and $0.04 HIVE or less.
But finishing with what tBTC could mean for STEEM but not HIVE is this... Tron just copied MakerDAO and created their own version on their blockchain. Logically, what would be their next great idea to steal? tBTC. After that? Maybe tSTEEM. I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Steem is dead quite yet.
Okay boys, downvote away!