The new course of the Rohingya issue and Bangladesh's worries

Bangladesh allowed one million Rohingya people to cross the border in 2017 who ran away from persecution and violence in Myanmar. Also, another approximately four million Rohingyas are still sheltering in Bangladesh. International countries continue to press upon Myanmar in order to make this displaced population go back to their country; the result is a prolonged agony which has the Rohingya remain away from Myanmar for more than six years. Bangladesh, for its part as China, India, or Myanmar but comparable to its "closer" allies, perceived presence of friendship as an advantage to get its interests in the Rohingya crisis promoted. Meanwhile, major powers like Russia, the United States, among others, with a stake in Myanmar override Bangladesh in all the global arena leaving its closest friends China and India disappointed in Bangladesh failing to lead and reluctant to give up anything in its support.

With steady development of this crisis, an unprecedented dynamic has appeared in the relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar. To date, from 4th to 9th of February this year, around 330 security service defenders (including members of the armed forces) are already left their country in a bid to find refuge or opportunity in neighboring Bangladesh. Bangladesh has told Myanmar government about its hope for receiving back these returnees and a number of 101 of them being already transferred from the border point of Tumbru in Bandarban to Teknaf in Cox's Bazar. On the other hand, the duration for repatriation is still unclear; there is no mention of the program plan as yet. The current Myanmar authorities continue to demonstrate high volatile moves thus uncertain is the resettlement plan completed. The situation is still complicated, even if the countries are under pressure in both military and diplomatic relations with the closest partners. So both Myanmar and Bangladesh remain conflicting and any decisions can be taken, they are the responsibility of each regime.

Myanmar's border forces encroaching on the territory of Bangladesh are not simply a few people crossing over, which in turn indicates not just the regional and global interests but also the nationalistic ideals of the two countries. Bangladesh faces challenges that the remain the top priority of the world. Being left without a decision from the parliament or a debate, Bangladesh COVID-19 influx of 2017 made the country to face numerous different social, economic, national and global issues. On the one hand, the mysterious nature of the quandary in terms of when and how to extricate itself from the problems does not even let the most clever diplomats achieve this aim. Similarly, although Bangladesh faces some difficulties coming up with the right holistic strategy, a number of parties have a valid reason (or reasons of) for a feeling of relief.

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It is clear that UNHCR (UN Refugee Agency) and other UN organizations which are working with Rohingya Refugees are mostly pleased with the crisis end as one of the first beneficiaries are the poor people. Behind them are the major players that extend to include Bangladesh and Myanmar among others scrabbling for profit opportunities in the weak governance of either country. The gains that these countries which are self-benefitting desire share the same principles of those that were achieved when the United States through the leadership of its current president invaded Iraq in the year 2003 with an agenda of taking over the country's offshore oil fields. Taiwan's situation today can almost be considered as the repetition of that dread history. While, on the other hand, some self-concerned states are giving military support to Myanmar's government which is also not so stable, yet they remain reluctant to arm and support the opposing forces. These stakes will go into the hands of these outside powers in case, Myanmar will fail and Bangladesh will be left with all this issues by itself. These are for example oil field in the Bay of Bengal, ports in the Southeast, the place for deep sea harbors project in Maheshkhali, the multiple economic hubs in Bangladesh and Myanmar, and transit routes built and to be constructed in.

In this case, the two countries of Myanmar and Bangladesh stand to benefit into durable control of the maritime traffic at the mouth of Ganges. This will only but continue the process of economic controls towards which they seem to drift. Regardless, the Myanmar and Bangladesh Governments share similar lack of focus on the subject.