Hello SPIers, today we look at the BTC to HIVE ratio (again) because things are starting to get interesting.
The markets today have crapped themselves and everything is down. Our ETH margin trade would have been wiped out if we never had the auto top-up turned on so we know it works and as long as there are funds in the holdings wallet, we're good. Everything is down but some things are down more than others and today we're looking at HIVE and its BTC price.
Here's is HIVEs full BTC price chart
You can see HIVE bottomed against BTC in Jan 2021. This was at a ratio of roughly 330k to 1 BTC. By Dec 2021, ALT season was peaking and over the course of 2-3 weeks, we went from 120k HIVE to 1 BTC to under 21k HIVE to 1 BTC. The 2021 bubble popped and it's been downhill since.
We've been talking about converting our BTC into HIVE when this ratio hits 200k to 1 BTC for maybe a year already and we're getting really close to our target. Here's the chart for the past year and today's BTC to HIVE price.
Are we crazy about converting our BTC into HIVE, what if BTC moons to $300k and HIVE never goes over $1? Both of these are not likely to happen but thats the risk we take. Converting a BTC out for 200k HIVE from my POV is kind of a money grab when we understand how BTCs price moves differently to ALTs like HIVE. When we think of the market cycle, we think about it in terms of dollars but there are also cycles within tokens themselves. We're trading BTC/HIVE but it's possible to trade anything against anything else.
Here is HIVE priced in ETH from launch
The bottom and top are not as impressive as they are with BTC because ETH is also an ALT token like HIVE and following BTC. HIVE arrives later to the party cause it's further down the marketcap richlist.
Back to BTC and HIVE. We are getting close the our target and im writing this post cause it might happen soon. The market has gone all red and when we see down double-digit days, they last a few more days. Because BTC is the top dog with the biggest marketcap by far, its volatility is less than a small ALT like HIVE. If we can expect further tankage of the markets, we can expect BTC to outperform HIVE.
Today, HIVE dropped by 8.2% in BTC value. At 185k to 1 BTC and our target being 200k, we're only 8.1% away. In other words, if today were like today, we'd see 1 BTC worth 200k HIVE. That's how close we are to doing this trade.
Short term this will hurt us, and hurt the fund value because it's likely we'll see HIVE bottom out against BTC at 250k plus and some will see this as a missed chance to not get more HIVE for our BTC. Why not convert out 20% at a time between 200k and 250k? Why not do this are do that? We dont need to and aiming for a 4x on BTC is good enough, being greedy and making things over complicated just to wreck yourself is not a good plan.
Long term time, converting 1 BTC into 200k will result in 2 ways, whichever comes first. 1, HIVE price hits $2 toward the end of the bullrun and we collect $400k or 2, the BTC to HIVE ratio drops to 1 BTC to 50k HIVE and we get 4 BTC. The spread last cycle was 330k HIVE down to 21k HIVE for 1 BTC, over 15x. We're aiming for 200k to 50k for a conservative 4x this cycle.
How risky does that sound?
Not risky at all. If we stick to our plan, when to buy in and when to cash out and if we believe it will happen, it will happen and all it takes is a few clicks and waiting, mostly waiting.
And on a plus note, we'll have 200k HIVE to play with for 6-9 months before it would need to be powered down and made liquid. We'd be able to boost income a little and delegate a bunch to @eds-vote and give it a boost as well.
Im very much looking forward to the next 18 months for SPI, this cycle could make are break us.
Getting Rich Slowly from June 2019
| Token Name | Main Account | Link to hive-engine |
|---|---|---|
| SPI token | @spinvest | SPI |
| LBI token | @lbi-token | LBI |
| Top XV token | @spinvest | XV |
| Eddie Earners | @eddie-earner | EDS |
| EDS miners | @eddie-earner | EDSM |
| EDS mini miners | @eddie-earner | EDSMM |
| DAB | @dailydab | DAB |
| DBOND | @dailydab | DBOND |
Stay up to date with investments, and fund stats and find out more about SPinvest in our discord server
#soon
210k now
gogo convert!!