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RE: Some speculation on HBD price movements and how it impacts proposals

in #hive3 years ago

The biggest attack vector on HBD is the peg.

Sounds crazy. But it is a risk-free buy at 1$ (in the longterm).

If someone buys as much he can at 1$ and purge out the market, there is nothing much needed to bring it to higher levels and sell it over time ( or buy the supply to the point of the natural demand increase price).

In the worst case, if there no buyer, it's still worth the peg. Is hard to lose money with this ( om the longterm).

Is the same with 0,5$ HBD. Long-term easy buy.

I think with changes and auto exchange pools that offer an ROI we will become a 1$ HBD.

But I was thinking about it last time more. And I think this opens also the door for big money attacks to manipulate the price and make exchange rates crazy.

And then the peg can become again an attack vector. Not 100% sure, because it can be complex, and I'm not sure about the mechanic with dip conversation ( because of haircut, like pre-haircut level conversations), to generate more and more coins with enough money into the game ( or extract as much as possible).

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At $1, yes it is a riskless bet in some sense.

As things stand now, HBD should usually trade at just above $1. That makes buying it not quite riskless. I'm not saying that's what happens, but that's the behavior that would be economically sensible if pegging were working.

I would like to adjust the fee part of blocktrades proposal for HIVE->HBD conversions to apply to both sides. That is, X/2 percent conversion fee on each side, instead of just the X% (proposed by blocktrades to be 5%) on the HIVE->HBD side and no fee on the other side. In effect, this would make HBD convertable into slightly less ($1 less fee). In that case, HBD would be more likely to trade around $1 where the risk of gain and loss is more balanced, instead of slightly above $1 which is what I think would happen now (if the upper end were successfully pegged). Since this isn't a priority it will likely wait until some future hard fork and for the time being HBD will likely tend to trade a bit above $1 instead of around $1.

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