I'd say roughly 4–6 years from initial funding to meaningful profit.
Years 1–2: Build, test, certify, hire, manufacture, and run pilots.
Years 2–3: Begin serious deployment and merchant/user acquisition.
Years 3–4: Scale transaction volume toward operating break-even.
Years 4–6: Potentially generate meaningful profit and begin recovering the initial investment.
With 3 years after the fact to get returns and profits.
“when does this become a mature, profitable ecosystem?”, I'd say it will be about 7–10
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