MATCHED BETTING – The RISK-FREE cash generator: Introduction
Matched betting is done on the basis of arbitrage meaning hedging your potential risk against its competing markets. In a betting sense arbitrage isn’t quite seen as a tool, this is due to the fact that bookmakers suck a large percentage out of the supposed face odds(true estimated value of the odds decided by the bookmaker prior to commission) making it counterintuitive to hedge a bet seeing you pay roughly 3-10% in expected loss every bet, hedging against an already backed outcome means you pay “bookie tax” twice!
Hedging isn’t always bad, in-fact there are many opportunities where hedging shifts the odds into your favour, giving you the edge over the bookmaker, potentially even creating you risk free profits. Examples of +EV(positive expected value) hedges could be;
One book is offering a total points line of 180.5 @$1.90 for both sides. You then find another book offering a line of 185.5 @$1.90. A discrepancy between bookmaker odds has allowed you to find a +EV arbitrage opportunity. Unsure in the true odds of both totals you search other bookmakers to make a comparison of odds and come to notice the majority of other bookmakers also have their line set at the 180.5 mark for around the same price. This new data allows you to establish that the line of 185.5 is the line that holds extra value only when betting on it to go under(otherwise vice versa), knowing this we also know that taking Under 185.5 total game points in itself is a +EV bet due to where competing lines are set but we are not sure that the bet wins so why don’t we hedge our risk by betting the Over 180.5 total game points leaving us a middle opportunity to win both bets from an arbitrage. You managed to find value on one book, you also sacrificed value on the other book, but in return for security in the means of a hedge.
One book is offering a handicap line of 4.5, both sides are paying $1.95. You then search all your bookmakers attempting to find a better line and do just that, this book is offering that same line of 4.5 but the +4.5 is paying $2.10 & the -4.5 is paying $1.70. Knowing you have found roughly 10 cents of positive value on top of the face odds a decision is made on whether you take on the bare risk at a +EV or whether you hedge it off to fully negate risk and produce a slightly less +EV but fixed return situation. A fixed return situation would look like this;
A. $1050 on -4.5 @$1.95 to return $2145.00
B. $1000 on +4.5 @$2.10 to return $2100
Outcome A: $2145.00 - $1050 = $1095.00 - $1000 = +$95.00
Outcome B: $2100 - $1000 = $1100 - $1050 = +$50
You have created a win, win situation.
The best of risk free money comes through hedging bookmaker promotions & bookmaker free bets, I will be back with another thread going over that in full depth which will DEFINETLY be worth your time reading(depending on how available bookmakers & bookmaker promotions are in your jurisdiction).
Following this(depending on interest) I would like to write I guide on bankroll management and talk about some of the strategies & tactics I use to make money using percentage amounts of managed risk.
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