jg,
Thanks for the useful analogy to simplify a complex system. The organism' recovery is further complicated in that the economic disease ranges to pandemic scale. Most reading here would likely be able to name at least a dozen other countries even in more dire circumstances in about five seconds.
To add a bit to your good example, I think of a room having many tables with each table supporting a paper house made of carefully placed playing cards. There's a large door at the entrance and the wind outside is blowin' a gale. Those inside observers know the door will open and the logical conclusion - we just don't know when it will open. In present circumstances, it's likely a boastful clown will barge in without thought and...