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RE: Musing Posts

in #musing-threads6 years ago

China never gets the stock market. The Chinese government is like, shit, I don't even know what's going to happen next year, or even next month, and I know a ton more than you, a small investor, do. And somehow you just know what a company's earnings' going to be in the next 30 years, precise to the nth degree, and come up with the right price for the company's stock. Isn't this just too miraculous?

So that's not how the Chinese stock market works. The Chinese stock market is a hybrid of policy directive + casino, with the government as the house. The policy directive part works like this:
The government starts talking about pollution is bad.
The smart investors get the message and start putting money into solar companies.
The government tells the provincial governors: "Next year your job evaluation will have a pollution-reduction score. If you score highly you are next in line for a promotion."
The governors run through their provinces shutting down the dirty coal-burners and replacing them with solar energy.
Solar companies make a killing.
Investors make a killing.
Government policy gets implemented.

Basically, the government is in it to move money from private pockets to enterprises. It couldn't care less what the stock index is, as long as the key industries are getting funded.

The Chinese economy, on the other hand, is a different story. Back in the 70's, the Chinese set a goal of reaching the living standard of "mid-tier developed countries" for the average Chinese citizens by 2050. The example quoted was "something like Portugal, Greece, or Italy". So - an 80-year plan to improve the people's living standard. In addition to private enterprises, the Chinese government has been a main driver of the economy. When Xi goes to visit Russia and the ME, he brings with him the CEOs of the 3 major Chinese oil and gas companies, and the top 5 construction companies, "can you sell us some oil exploration rights, give us some energy discount? Is there a road or power plant we can build for you?" When Li goes to visit EU, he brings with him a couple of the top bankers and manufacturers, "can you issue RMB-denominated debt in London/Zurich? Can we build this and that for you?" Basically, the Chinese government is out there full-time doing deals. It's an active player in driving the economy. And when you can leverage the whole Chinese market behind you to do deals, you can get pretty good terms. The Chinese government may not tell you what's going on with the economy, but they know exactly where they are.