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Wall Street eyes signs of TACO amid Iran war
Coronavirus and Public Health:
Scientists find immune cell linked to long COVID fatigue and symptoms
Iran:
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A new oil shock is building. The next few weeks of war will be decisive for the economy.
The clock is ticking on the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. The emerging view from oil industry executives and analysts is that the economic and market fallout from the war could escalate sharply if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened within roughly the next one to three weeks.
Even then, enough damage may have been done already to leave energy and many other prices higher for longer.
These risks haven’t been clearly reflected in some widely followed markets, including stocks broadly and the benchmark Brent crude price. Stopgap measures to soften the blow of the oil cutoff have kept crude prices relatively low in the U.S. and European markets. But when those measures lose their effectiveness in early-to-mid April, analysts warn there will be little the U.S. or other governments can do to keep energy prices from rising dramatically.
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Political Risks for Trump Pile Up As Iran War Continues
On one hand, his approval rating hasn’t gone up: There certainly isn’t the usual ‘rally around the flag’ effect that has benefited other presidents in the opening stages of military conflicts. Instead, Mr. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 40 percent, according to our average. That’s a weak number under any circumstance, but it’s especially poor during what might ordinarily be a galvanizing moment for the country.
On the other hand, his ratings haven’t collapsed. They’ve fallen only by a percentage point or two, and some may be wondering why he hasn’t taken a bigger hit. After all, the military campaign goes against Mr. Trump’s ‘no new wars’ promise, and it has divided some MAGA conservatives. For good measure, the polls show that a majority of the public opposes the war.
From that perspective, the war might look like the latest example of Mr. Trump’s political resiliency. He’s largely unscathed — again. But if you think he’s insulated from any political consequence from the war, that would be going too far. There are enormous downside risks to his presidency if the war goes on.
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Politics:
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Republicans Eye Health Care Cuts to Pay for Iran War
Republicans are considering reductions in federal health spending to help pay for a budget bill containing as much as $200 billion to fund the Iran war and immigration enforcement.
New efforts to rein in health programs are sure to be controversial and open the GOP up to election-year attacks that they’re cutting health care to pay for an unpopular war.
The United States Has Become a Rogue State
———— Autocracy R Us ————
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———— Putin&Krasnov vs. Ukraine ————
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———— Hegseth on the Rocks ————
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———— Mors Imperii ————
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Ah, so nice x
AI’s folly meets economic collapse.