I will start out with this blog on exploring the world energy crisis. Certainly I will not touch upon everything, nor can I; But after that point, I will become more cynical about bitcoin and other POW coins. I am not saying there is any truth to what I am to opine, nor do i mean to spread any fudd, nor do I want people to take financial advice from me. This is mostly a cynical article about what could happen.
In india, NPR reports that the mines were flooded with water. https://www.npr.org/2021/10/23/1048646219/india-still-counts-on-coal-for-its-power-and-that-could-be-a-problem
They have begun, by mandate, supplementing their coal plants with biomass pellets.
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-tweaks-policy-use-biomass-pellets-coal-fired-power-plants-2021-10-09/
In China, foreign policy reports, that china put in price caps on energy costs and that power companies were burning coal that they have in stock, rather than making new purchases, and the coal miners reduced their mining. And now with winter coming, all the coal plants need coal that generally isn't available-even though China since ordered the plants to maintain a 7 day supply of coal. To make matters worse for china, they banned importing Australian coal. Some argue that much of this coal crack down was to try to advance green energy solutions and to try to meet climate change goals. Let us also not forget that China has repeatedly banned crypto and their operations are moving across the Globe-even to the USA.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/07/china-energy-crisis-electricity-coal-pricing-renewables/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-orders-power-plants-build-7-day-coal-inventories-sources-2021-07-19/
Additionally, china has also created a coal to gas initiative, putting increased demand towards gas and away from coal.
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/lng/090221-analysis-high-lng-prices-trigger-gas-demand-destruction-in-chinas-downstream-sectors
In 2020 China's appetite for coal exceeded 50% of the worlds usage.
https://fortune.com/2021/03/29/china-coal-energy-electricity-xi-jinping-2020-ember/
Additionally, China is pledging not to build new coal plants abroad.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xi-says-china-aims-provide-2-bln-vaccine-doses-by-year-end-2021-09-21/
It is possible these cuts were made due to Us pressure.
As previously China doubled down on their expansion:
https://news.yahoo.com/china-doubles-down-coal-plants-084904276.html
In the USA, Joe Biden not only ended the keystone pipeline, but also ended an oil project in Alaska that was employing over a thousand.
https://t.me/rtnews/13880
Additionally, an Obama era $7.5 billion clean coal [Kemper power] plant in Mississippi was demolished this year. In 2017, with only about 100 hours of clean coal use, it was decided not to buy clean coal, but instead to use natural gas. The project was ripe with problems, tripling the budget to produce, and in 2017 they were still at least a decade away from effectively using clean coal.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/02/clean-coal-america-kemper-power-plant
https://neshobademocrat.com/stories/kemper-coal-plant-structures-imploded,51980
additionally Biden tried to stop new oil and gas leasing earlier this year, only to be blocked by a judge. There are pressures to extend this prohibitions to coal.
https://apnews.com/article/business-climate-environment-and-nature-1725b4ef68f24fbdf0b5546b079f8eb0
And Pedo Joe has wanted to end the coal industry, despite his son owning a stake of it in China.
https://thenationalpulse.com/news/biden-coal-hypocrisy/
Florida just shut down the last of its coal plants, and the company is planning to install solar and has invested in natural gas.
https://apnews.com/article/florida-environment-and-nature-business-60a5105230256460f57a3db7a537f2e8
The Tennesse valley authority will close down it's coal plants by 2035; Bidens deadline to decarbonize.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tennessee-valley-authority-plans-shut-coal-plants-by-2035-2021-05-03/
New England is set to finally get hydropower from Canada, pending referendums this november. It's only been planned since the 1950/1960s, and hydropower isn't exactly green.
https://therevelator.org/hydropower-necec/
Biden also canceled the keystone pipeline.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/biden-sued-energy-groups-drilling-ban
Much of Europe was investing in green Energy, they became heavily dependent on clean natural gas-much of which seems to come from Russia. Due to increases manufacturing demand for liquid natural gas, and what the DW claims was a cold winter and warm Asian summer, stored natural gas inventories ran low. Europeans are blaming Russia for holding back, but Russia might have more for them upon opening up a new pipeline with Biden's blessing-that was opposed by the previous administration because of the alleged nerve agent attack on Navalny.
https://www.dw.com/en/europeans-brace-for-hard-winter-as-energy-price-surge-hits-households/a-59246714
https://t.me/rtnews/5839
Meanwhile, according to the AP, the EU, despite the natural gas crisis, insists on shutting down coal mines. Coal miners inbulgaria went on strike.
https://apnews.com/article/business-sofia-bulgaria-european-union-coal-mining-5587ee8ebfff6c880abd43a32c3ef64f
But that hasn't stopped gas plants from going back to using coal.
https://t.me/rtnews/13414
Prince Charles wants to shut down all coal plants.
But reality begs differently in the U.k., as old coal plants are brought back online
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58469238
And I bet Yorkshire kept their edinbouough cooling towers.
source: the independant.
Hungary blames the EU for intentionally raising coal and oil prices to combat climate change.
https://t.me/rtnews/13184
Meanwhile, poland is expected to pay 500 000 pounds a day for violating an EU court order demanding that they shut down their coal mining operations at the Turow coal mine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-must-pay-500000-euros-daily-ignoring-eu-court-ruling-turow-2021-09-20/
Throughout Asia, investors, including prudential, are buying up coal power plants only to shut them down and convert to green energy.
https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/coal-bad-bank-fund-dangles-complex-climate-kudos-2021-08-05/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
In turkey, a fire burned up a coal power plant
https://t.me/rtnews/9405
Sri Lanka is pledging to stop using Coal by 2050.
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/sri-lanka-cease-building-coal-fired-plants-aims-be-net-zero-emitter-by-2050-2021-09-24/?taid=614e6a0d88b4be000154f8ca
South Africa is to invest $10 billion into shut down coal plants by 2050 and invest in renewables.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/africas-top-emitter-seeks-10-bln-shift-coal-2021-06-30/
The G7 nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union) have agreed to stop state financing of coal power-likely influenced by John Kerry.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210504-us-climate-envoy-kerry-says-islands-face-beyond-existential-threat
Much of south America relied on hydropower, but this year they have a drought and subsequently have energy problems.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-03/global-energy-crisis-comes-to-drought-stricken-south-america
I am not going to make the argument for or against coal. More people die from extreme cold, than heat. https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-heat-cold-deaths-medical-journal-health-risk-energy-cost-fossil-fuels-11631741045 . So I am perplexed in how climate change, formerly dubbed global warming until endless prediction failures led to a pr massacres ( http://www.ipsnews.net/2010/02/climate-change-amidst-global-warming-coldest-winter-in-50-years/ ), is supposed to be a bad thing. One of the articles above suggested even a warm winter could aid Europe overcome their natural gas crisis; Imagine the obvious.
A "rapid" switch away from fossil fuels may be untenable. Rather, what is going on in the energy markets is mostly inept leaders, and to some extent the weather. The two most inept leaders are Xi Jiping of China, and Joe Biden of the USA, and I am sure Angela Merkel is part of the mess too, then other world leaders following the lemming who are about to follow the leader into [Walt Disney] pushing them off the Cliff and into the sea.
To Xi's credit, he's repeatedly banned bitcoin and other crypto currencies in China. If he hadn't, I am sure the energy crisis in China would be worse for the retarded idea that government should regulate prices-absent monopolative abuse by the private sector. That said, Bitcoin eats up a lot of power, 0.5% of the world energy use goes to Bitcoin according to business insider. Mining has been blamed for power outages in iran, and the critics of it include Bill Gates, and Janet Yellen
https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-mining-electricity-usage-more-than-google-2021-9
And certainly Bitcoin isn't the only cryptocurrency being mined. Ethereum mining globally uses about 10% of the power relative to Bitcoin. https://www.businessinsider.in/cryptocurrency/news/heres-how-ethereum-2-0-cryptocurrency-promises-to-be-green-scalable-and-far-more-efficient/articleshow/83003150.cms. Google claims that China itself exceeded 25% of the world's energy consumption in 2020. So if you think of bitcoin+eth making up .55% of the world energy consumption, you might really want to consider 100%*.55%/75%=.73%. And if you want to be more anal about it, you could look at energy cost by country and exclude the countries whose prices are untenable for mining and exclude those presently unprofitable. https://www.statista.com/statistics/263492/electricity-prices-in-selected-countries/ . You'll see many in Europe with high energy prices in 2020.
The point I am trying to drive is that after China banned crypto again, much of the production has moved here to the United states-particularly Texas where electricity rates are cheap. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/chinas-bitcoin-miner-exodus-.html
And so here is where the cynic in me starts to come out. Having grown up in a northern climate, you learn not to rely on electricity. When you lose power, you could be without electricity for a few hours, days, or even over a week or more. And what would cause such a power outage; An ice storm or a blizzard. Instead you have to rely on oil and wood, even a backup generator requires fossil fuels. If you cut fossil fuels out of the picture, then you pretty much just have wood. Granted wood is cleaner than coal, but I don't think cutting down trees is good for the environment either. And for those who advocate using fallen trees, they tend to be rotted. Furthermore, it would drive up the costs of wood and destroy the natural habitat of the woodland creatures-between losing the leaf peepers and hunters, it would kill the tourism industry. Furthermore, in the 17th century England was running out of wood and they imposed a chimney tax-which has evolved into what many parts of the US now call a property tax. The wood shortage also lead to the English burning coal, which polluted their cities. It also lead to the English crown claiming new England's white pines for masts on their ships, and ultimately new Hampshire's pine tree riots, which was a precursor to the Boston tea party, which was a precursor to the revolutionary war whom Washington had a pine tree flag.
We have a president who insist that we spend $3.5 trillion in his build back better program, which is effectively a green new deal. His nonsensical covid-policies is crippling world trade, causing shortages in the Us, and Chinese production to be reduced to a day a week; Europe might be getting colder if global err climate change activists are right. He's intentionally crippling Us oil and gas production, and intends to do more harm to the fossil fuel industry. Last year oil was so abundant and prices were so low, refineries were paying people to take their oil from them to avoid inventory costs; this year it is expected our oil reserves will run out. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/jpm-we-could-be-just-weeks-away-cushing-being-out-crude Inflation is at least 5 percent, and many experts say it is much worse https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/paul-tudor-jones-says-inflation-could-be-worse-than-feared-biggest-threat-to-markets-and-society.html . Jack Dorsey entertained the inea of hyperinflation. The supply chain is in shambles. Trucking companies are reportedly paying truck drivers 100k/year (I doubt it). Some states instantly resorted to calling up the national guard to bus students to and from school due to a bus driver shortage. But there is no leadership to be found in Washington. I think there is a possibility we are intentionally being held in attrition until the public demands immediate solutions no matter what the cost. I don't think it would come in the form of everyone being vaccinated, as the #2 treasury person, Wally Adeyemo, said to ABC news. https://t.me/rtnews/13580 . I think it will come in the form of Biden getting his oligarchical green new deal, where he hand selects the future political financiers in this country gifting them billions of dollars to try to compete against the Chinese. As inflation and hyperinflation sets in, people will hedge their savings by investing in Gold, silver, land, crypto, etc.
Furthermore, we are presently in a recession. Usually the way out of a recession is the desire to get people to spend money. This can be accelerated by lowering the interest rates. The Biden's administrations response was to set the highest treasury yeild since the pandemic began; it is effectively a move to accelerate a recession. https://t.me/rtnews/13891 . One might reasonably ask if the reason why the t-notes yeild is so high, because no one wants the dollar when the federal reserve goes brr with repeated record reverse repos.
But that isn't where my discussion ends. As I think I said above, the crypto industry is mostly financing green energy solutions. And I think the economic crisis and opportunities like the bitcoin etf will fuel more investments into green energy and to bitcoin. Any this is where I get real cynical. when Jack Dorsey boasts, "Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening." ( ~~~ embed:1451733913961783299 ), I think he doesn't fully understand his own politics; The communist left hates people with money, and they will cannibalism him if given the chance. What if the American energy crisis gets so bad, that the congress repeats what China does and ban mining crypto, or bans trading crypto. I don't think a full ban could survive a rational basis test, but a ban on POW might. such a prohibition would almost instantly turn many of the crypto millionaires and billionaires into instant paupers with little to no life skills. As far as all these green energy investments, if Bitcoin is no longer worth mining, then these investors might have to liquidate their privately owned electrical systems for pennies on the dollar. Sounds something like a Rothschild might cook up according to conspiracy theory; but you can't say it isn't without warning; Jamie Dimon recently said he thinks, "regulators are going to regulate the hell out of it." twitter metadata: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 ~~~
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/11/jpmorgan-chase-ceo-jamie-dimon-says-bitcoin-is-worthless.html . But even a ban on crypto wouldn't be required to effectively kill bitcoin. Theoretically, electrical prices could get so high that miners could make more money selling their electricity into the grid and rationally make that decision.
And is my cynicism done? Nope. One of Biden's comptroller for the treasury is reportedly a radical marxist, who is intent on having a centralized digital currency called the public ledger. https://lpeproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Peoples.Ledger.DRAFT_.pdf The goal is to eliminate private banks, and instead have the public have an account directly with the federal reserve. Additionally, the author hints at programmatic controls, "Functionally, specific CBDC
can differ in the degree of privacy and anonymity, availability around the
clock or during limited times, and other user convenience features.
Economically, CBDC may be universally available (“retail” or “general purpose”) or restricted to financial institutions only (“wholesale”), interest bearing or not, subject to quantitative limits or unlimited, and have varying
levels of convertibility into cash or bank deposits.", p17. And when I say Marxist, consider this statement, ". To maximize the
economic stimulus of the [Quantitative easing], however, it may make more sense
to have a progressive scale for crediting accounts of individuals, so that less
wealthy U.S. citizens and eligible residents receive proportionately higher
amounts of money. This differentiation would channel more funds to the
people who both need it most and will be more likely to spend the money on
daily purchases." and also "Implementing a contractionary monetary policy by debiting FedAccounts, in turn, presents a different set of ex ante institutional choices aiming to minimize the economic and political fallout from what is likely to
be perceived as the government 'taking away' people’s money", p27. Effective a, "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs". Notice she advocates the feds taking money out of your CBDC crypto wallet. I only skimmed the 60 page article, But it isn't unreasonable to expect a federal controlled ledger trying to guide the economy and to interfere in purchasing decisions and privacy. No, you are a peasant, therefore you do not need to buy gold; No, you don't need 100 boxes of count chocula https://abcnews.go.com/Business/colorado-towns-cereal-shortage-man/story?id=26343262; Why do you need 100m of magnet wire, you aren't an engineer; You don't have a horse or a pig, so you can't buy ivermectin; You are 20 lbs overweight so you cannot buy a donuts; Your required annual doctor visit revealed are 10 pounds overweight and not pregnant, we will deduct an extra $50 from your wallet each week; that honeybun has too much fat; that pretzel as too much salt; you already had one hamburger this month you don't get a second; you have been buying too much from [race/gender] based companies so you need to diversify; your order cannot be completed because the owner of this firm spread misinformation about the 2020 election that undermines faith in OUR democratic [party] systems; sorry you may made too much in sales this week; sorry you can't make your loan payment on your new house, we debited your wallet to control inflation; sorry you cannot give [$x] to directly to your daughter for college books because she isn't a registered company with registered products for sale; you have been buying to many mason jars, before you make your next purchase please visit the ministry of love.
So we very well could go from a realm of somewhat libertarian freedom with crypto, to complete despotism. Anyways, this is only really just an opportunity to be cynical so people can think about the upcoming risks. For the record, I have asked smaller POW projects I own how quickly they could switch to POS if such a thing happened, because I do think there might be some, not full, substance to this. It doesn't mean POS is safe either if this happens as it could be included in a ban, also POS coins could freefall if bitcoin is banned, or alternatively investments in POW could all go to POS; It is all speculative. That said, what I do know is: Let's Go Brandon.
I been thinking of this blog for a few weeks. approval of the etf basically cleared the major hurdle i had in writing it. In hind sight, I forgot to mention old debates where fising fosil fuel costswould be what would drive green energy.
And after publishing it, I am reminded of ransomware, and the disdain policy makers have on crypto for it. I don't think blaming crypto is a wise idea. Rather our key infrastructure needs to be designed to defend against such vulnerabilities.