Critical Analysis of PM Modi’s promises – Part 5: Concluding Summary

in #politics • 5 years ago

Critical Analysis of PM Modi’s promises – Part 5: Concluding Summary

Article authored by @AJain and @Rgov - Astute political observers

This is the fifth and the concluding part of the series where we are presenting an unbiased analysis of the elections promises that were made by Mr. Modi government during the 2014 election and the performance to-date against the promises.

A copy of the full manifesto can be downloaded here at the link given below: http://www.bjp.org/images/pdf_2014/full_manifesto_english_07.04.2014.pdf

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India general elections for 2019 are just being announced and with that, we will have an opportunity to understand Mr. Modi’s vision for India and tactical measures that the Modi government plans to execute over next five years. While the 2019 election manifesto is yet to be published, we will provide a perspective, in our opinion, on what challenges need to be addressed.

After reading through all the data points that we have provided in the last 20 articles or so, one can not question the pace and the scale of development that the Modi government has given to the nation. In many ways, it is historic and unprecedented. Let’s see how many people have been favorably impacted by the initiatives of the Modi government. Please note that in the data provided below we have omitted the impact of infrastructure projects which impact the entire populace. The data provided below is where the impact is felt at an individual level and the initiative has been completed. Given in the parenthesis are the schemes that the government had launched.

  • Medical insurance for low income populace (Ayushman Yojna): 500 million
  • Cooking gas for rural India (Ujjwala Yojna): 298 million (58 million households)
  • Financial loans for entrepreneurs (Mudra Yojna): 150 million
  • Toilets for all household (Swatch Bharat Yojna): 500 million (100 million households)
  • Housing for poor (Pradhan Mantri Gramin Awas Yojna): 35 million (7 million households)
  • Electricity for villages (Saubhagya Yojna): 26 million (18,956 villages)
  • Financial inclusion through the opening of Bank accounts (Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojna): 310 million
  • National agriculture market for farmers for selling crops (eNAM): 120 million
  • Income guarantee for farmers for adverse situations (Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi): 120 million

Totaling this handful of initiatives, we arrive at a figure of 2.059 billion. Considering that the total population of India is about 1.35 billion, it is obvious that certain segments of the populace have benefitted by more than one initiative. These are the people who had been largely ignored for decades. During Modi’s government, they were not only not ignored but were the priority for development for the government.

So, was Modi government a success? I think we have proven beyond doubt that the Modi government has firmly propelled India to become a developed country in the near future. Only a data blind, emotionally triggered and unobservant person would respond in negation.

Nothing succeeds like success and runaway success brings about its own set of challenges. This is what we will discuss now but before we do that, infographic, below, shows how India has evolved since independence

Challenges that incumbent Modi government or the new government should take cognizance of

National and Cyber Security

There has been a historic rivalry between India & Pakistan, and India & China. All three countries gained independence around the same time and do share borders. While China struck gold through Henry Kissinger’s secret visit of 1971 and went on to become the manufacturing powerhouse, Pakistan remained in denial with regards to its position in the world. China through its overt and covert support to Pakistan to induce instability in India supported Pakistan’s denial. Today, the world has lost the appetite for terrorism and after realizing that Pakistan is the manufacturing powerhouse for terrorism, have stopped supporting Pakistan.

This dynamic now results in direct aggression by Pakistan on India soil. Traditionally, there had never been any reaction from the Indian side but Mr. Modi through his surgical strikes and air strikes in unison with world opinion has sent a strong message to Pakistan.

India will have to continue to be vigilant and respond with speed and force to contain any future aggression from Pakistan and China. Additionally, India will now have to start taking measures against the cyber-attacks. It is public knowledge that China engages in cyber warfare with the USA and other European nations. Based on this historical evidence, China will use cyber-attack as a weapon against India and India must take proactive measures against it.

Less reliance on export subsidies and grants

In terms of Purchasing Power Parity GDP, India already ranks third in the world behind the USA and China. In terms of nominal GDP, India jumped from 11th position to 6th position in the last 5 years. It is expected that when the GDP data for 2018 is released, India will surpass the United Kingdom to become the top 5 GDPs of the world.

As the economic status of India increases, it is but natural that the world will start to withdraw the subsidies that were extended to India to help the economic development. The latest decision by the US government to withdraw the subsidies comes as a no surprise. Great Britain is also contemplating discontinuing grants to India. These benefits are peanuts (USA: $19 million, UK: $100 million) compared the national budget of India but nevertheless India must now compete and increase its global trading share.

Vertical integration and sustenance of the development

In the last 5 years, a lot of infrastructure has been created and the big challenge that lies ahead is to vertically integrate the development. For example, over 100 million toilets have been constructed and now India must invest in sewage treatment plants to prevent downstream pollution and continue to maintain high hygiene levels. Similarly, hundreds of thousands of miles of road that have been constructed will require a budget to support the maintenance. The “Make in India” initiative has jump-started the Indian manufacturing but the indigenization content in these finished good remain low. India must vertically integrate the manufacturing to increase the indigenization content at break-neck speed.

Energy independence

As a nation grows, so will its energy requirements. While India is not particularly rich in natural resources, through policies and budget allocations, emphasis on infrastructure to utilize the renewable source of energy should remain a top priority. India has taken steps in the right direction but will need to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy generation infrastructure. Countries such as Germany can be looked upon as a role model for renewable energy production. Energy independence will also allow India to isolate itself from world oil politics.

Education

Numerous studies have been conducted to establish a direct correlation between the education and growth of a nation. More educated the citizens are more prosperous the nation becomes. India must not only focus on academic education but must also focus on civil and social education. The whole mindset of cleaning the house and throwing the litter onto streets has got to change before India can see an uptick on Personal Human Index which is the only parameter holding India back from becoming a developed nation.
In conclusion, in short 5 years, the Modi government has built a strong foundation for India’s future growth and has moved the nation from a predominantly socialist mindset to a more of capitalistic mindset. While it can be argued, our opinion is that capitalism under the democratic form governance is the only way to sustain growth in the long term. The progress has not gone unnoticed by the world leaders. The trajectory will also bring new friends and foes alike that India is well equipped to handle through its policies of non-alignment. Mr. Modi has emerged as a global leader and not just a national politician and that’s what distinguishes India of today from India of yesterday.
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5 years ago in #politics by
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