Don't get fooled by the lack of a narrative
The US midterms 2018 gave us a phenomenal look at the importance of expectations and where you come relative to expectations. Going in we had the hype around a Democratic "Blue Wave" creep into dinner conversations.
On the night, the Dems appeared to disappoint, retaking the House of Representatives, but losing 3 key seats in the Senate. Trump gave another infamous press conference and claimed victory. The so called Blue Wave seemed to hit a Red Wall.
But what really happened?
People predicted that the Libs were going to give Trump a rebuke, and that's exactly what happened.
But Yuen, they lost the Senate, that has got to hurt. And it totally does, it basically means next time they won't get to make a fuss over the supreme court like with Kavanaugh. Whoever they put up will get an easy run. And all the Dems' hot candidates, Beto O'Rourke in Texas and Stacey Abrams in Georgia are both Losers with a capital L.
I'm not here to brush off these setbacks, and I'm not here to make soft excuses about the redness of the map. I'm here to point out that the Dems took the popular vote by seven percentage points, and they took that popular vote in enough states to get to 278 delegates, when you only need 270 to be president. The map attached is from Nate Silver, and shows US states by who won the popular vote in 2018. And this figure of 278 isn't even including the closer races in Florida and Arizona. Big wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are quite simply enough to give a Democrat the most important job in the world.
This is where you cut back that its just the midterms, Obama lost the midterms and still went on to win. Yep totally true, but this midterms was special. Turnout was unprecedented. In Georgia its looking like 55% of voters, not that amazing by global standards, but 21 points about its average between 1982 and 2014.
There is only one narrative going into the next set of US elections in 2020, and that is that it is all to play for.
The only question now is who the Dems are going to nominate. Someone that makes the heart beat faster like Bernie Sanders, or somebody who really should win those rust belt states in the Mid West like Joe Biden.
Don't get fooled by the lack of a narrative
The US midterms 2018 gave us a phenomenal look at the importance of expectations and where you come relative to expectations. Going in we had the hype around a Democratic "Blue Wave" creep into dinner conversations.
On the night, the Dems appeared to disappoint, retaking the House of Representatives, but losing 3 key seats in the Senate. Trump gave another infamous press conference and claimed victory. The so called Blue Wave seemed to hit a Red Wall.
But what really happened?
People predicted that the Libs were going to give Trump a rebuke, and that's exactly what happened.
But Yuen, they lost the Senate, that has got to hurt. And it totally does, it basically means next time they won't get to make a fuss over the supreme court like with Kavanaugh. Whoever they put up will get an easy run. And all the Dems' hot candidates, Beto O'Rourke in Texas and Stacey Abrams in Georgia are both Losers with a capital L.
I'm not here to brush off these setbacks, and I'm not here to make soft excuses about the redness of the map. I'm here to point out that the Dems took the popular vote by seven percentage points, and they took that popular vote in enough states to get to 278 delegates, when you only need 270 to be president. The map attached is from Nate Silver, and shows US states by who won the popular vote in 2018. And this figure of 278 isn't even including the closer races in Florida and Arizona. Big wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are quite simply enough to give a Democrat the most important job in the world.
This is where you cut back that its just the midterms, Obama lost the midterms and still went on to win. Yep totally true, but this midterms was special. Turnout was unprecedented. In Georgia its looking like 55% of voters, not that amazing by global standards, but 21 points about its average between 1982 and 2014.
There is only one narrative going into the next set of US elections in 2020, and that is that it is all to play for.
The only question now is who the Dems are going to nominate. Someone that makes the heart beat faster like Bernie Sanders, or somebody who really should win those rust belt states in the Mid West like Joe Biden.
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