A random idea popped into my head the other day, so naturally I discussed it with my "hey can we code this" guy @hivetrending. Not cause I'm just taking advantage of him often coding things for free, but cause we've had a nice streak with some things being valuable in the past, often more so than the initial idea as the community found other ways to make use of them, such as @commentrewarder.
Prediction markets are making a big buzz these days, a lot of volume happening on polymarket where people can basically "bet" on anything. I'm not entirely too sure how everything works, nor would this be similar to it as we're not really prepared nor do I think we want to be in terms of taking people's coins and opening a casino, but maybe down the line someone could/would be able to when we get smarter contracts on hive.
We could however start out with a "soft" prediction market, albeit a bit controversial to a degree hence I'm writing this post to see what people would think about it. Either way, here's a rough sketch of how it could work, save your "OMFG HOW DID U THINK THIS WAS A GOOD IDEA?!" comments for after you read it, please. :D
Prediction markets through voting.
I guess this should already give you an idea that this isn't meant to be some kind of big league high roller project, but more of a fun and new thing to use your voting power on and potentially even power up some hp or winnings for the long run!
It could either use polls or comments to cast your votes.
- If you vote on the polls it doesn't cost any voting power, but you'd then still need to vote on the post/comment to participate and "bet" on the poll choice. Thus the bot would need to check which option in the poll you chose, your % of the rewards if you picked the correct choice compared to the total rewards of the post/comment along with the rewards from users that voted on the wrong option(s).
It would require a bot to track the poll/votes cast.
It would require a service/person to confirm the correct outcome.
It would require a payout bot.
This would basically be a "you have nothing to lose" outcome, if you're wrong, you still get curation rewards just like voting on any other post (as long as they or this doesn't get downvoted) which is what makes this controversial. Although times are a bit different now where we see stakeholders vote on a variety of things that aren't always content, maybe there's room for more things?
Another slightly more complicated version of this could exist where there would be something to lose, this one would require the votes not be in the poll option however but on comments.
This version would require outcomes to be determined before comments pay out (within 7 days), thus long-term predictions like "when will Trump nuke the planet?" may not be feasible for it. This version would simply have a larger stakeholder(s) use their downvote mana to downvote the wrong predictions. Thus, those who bet their vote on the wrong outcomes would not receive curation rewards.
This version would however give winners only their own bet 2x since the bets of the losers would be downvoted. To make up for this, additional rewards could come from the prediction post itself if they were upvoted or required to be upvoted as well by participants/others.
There may be more options/gamification to this. Post rewards of many predictions could be pooled for weekly/monthly prizes distributed towards accounts based on their history of predicting outcomes.
There could also be restrictions in place where we'd only validate one vote per day as valid by an account as to not take too much voting power from other things such as content/burn posts/hbdstabilizer posts, etc.
Either way, I'm just opening up discussions to the idea with this post, if people think it'd be fun and there's not much bad actor activity in it, it could be fun to try. The service itself could take a small fee mainly to take care of liquidity to provide liquid hive to winners it receives as stake but also to reward those who coded and maintain it along with helpers down the line if it becomes very active on a daily basis.
The fun thing with hive is that prediction markets would be tied to usernames and their history more compared to other blockchain's that hide behind anonymous addresses and you can never really be sure who's who and who's voting for what. This could sway certain users one or the other direction and see if "wisdom of the crowd" works with the social layer on top. We could even have people engage in the prediction posts about the predictions and later the outcomes which isn't something you could see in other places as transparently and openly.
These reasons were some that made me think maybe this wouldn't be such a bad idea, and as mentioned, down the line someone could potentially evolve the idea to take bets that aren't just "free upvotes".
Let me know what you think!
I could see this being fun. From a regulatory perspective it might want to have a separate front-end. Polymarket was recently banned here in Australia. Voting instead of actually betting might move us into a different category, but if not; it'd be a shame to see peakd, ecency etc get blocked wherever prediction markets are.
Spin up an account for each prediction market that has an outcome that takes longer than 7 days. All rewards go to that account as a beneficiary. The rewards are only released when the "oracle(s)" validate the outcome of that market.
tbis is exactly how I saw it 😅
Sure that could work as well, or just keeping them in escrow until an outcome is verified, point is you wouldn't be able to "downvote" the wrong predictions to make it so voters/betters have something to lose.
Escrow probably better than a new account. Wouldn't want to misrepresent onboarding metrics.
sounds fun, don't you just love it when crazy ideas pop into your head like this!
wisdom of the crowd would totally be a thing i recon ..
everyone loves a good "guru" and equally sqashing the view of arch enemies.. :-)
BLINGIT
You could consider this self voting because you get both of the rewards (author+curation). I was going to say this gamification is fine but at that point why would you even vote something else?
PS. I usually think more negative though. There are probably positive ways to make this happen.
Yeah that's why I added the ideas that there would either be a restriction of how often u can vote on things, i.e. if you vote on 2 or more predictions we'd only count the first of that 24h period
or that the wrong outcomes would get downvoted and extra rewards for the winners would instead come from the main post (prediction) rather than from the losing comments.
It could potentially be gamified to a point where people would feel safer just voting on regular content but give an option to those wanting to be a bit risky with the chance of getting 2x+ their curation rewards in return depending on the prediction and how others have voted. i.e. if it's something 90% of the people voted correctly you'd naturally only get ~1.1x your vote back, etc.
Your idea for a prediction market that uses voting power is creative. Nice to see it viewed as an enjoyable way to engage rather than simply as a form of gambling.
The idea you propose is tempting, has potential, and could be developed as a betting game.
Perhaps it could be an optional feature, an alternative like the poll that can be implemented in a publication.
Instead of upvoting system for rewards, maybe having people straight up gamble their Hive for it and have it stored on an escrow account. Organizer gets a cut in the winning side's portion for standard fees. Incentives for those that want to start a prediction would include having more % of the reward cut if there's good participation turn out.
If there's a 2nd layer token on Hive Engine, the incentives can be tokens that give owners a cut from the transaction fees in the market.
I don't really care one way or the other if this happens, especially since crypto itself can be viewed as a form of gambling in general. So, makes some sense to incorporate different features that would entice people already here in the space.
But, man, it really feels like there's a gambling epidemic currently happening, lol. Maybe this is an American centered thing, but for real. I feel like every sector of business/entertainment online is leaning into betting/predictions or other forms of gambling and I get this shit pushed to me everywhere now.
the moment commentwarden was mention I thought, set as beneficiary all curation or a percentage of the rewards (not so sure how would that work) and create a reward pool for the winer or winners that gets awarded once the outcome happens, would be fun although but I understand how ppl would see it as a casino 🤷.... I like your idea, sounds fun 🚀💯
I think this would be hella fun! Now I want it lol
In my opinion the second option would be the best, if everyone always wins something that's not really "fair" bet / competition so the idea of loser losing its vote power is good... It's important that's not a win win for all
I also think a percentage of fee would be fine to maintain all the system / bots like in real world of betting
I'm not one for gambling, but I like creative ideas that can bring fun and new people to Hive.
this is a good idea, the topics you mentioned here should be one of the topics discussed. and i have nothing to say much because i'm new here and i still have a lot to learn and need to explore.
Personally, I don't like gambling, but prediction markets appeal to many people, and if they are useful for engaging the community and creating new opportunities for fun based on Hive, they are always welcome in my opinion.
There is a version of this when downvoting, now I know. So it's sad that others don't get anything. Yeah, I agree that you also need to wait seven days before paying out rewards in the comments.
This version sounds more fun as it's hard to manipulate.
But then, we socifi.... Trying something new is always risky.
I'd rather you build the sports gaming ability than a prediction market.. Dodgers to win is a much easier bet to place then to try and figure out predictions...
The thought of tying predictions to usernames and public histories is genius . It adds accountability and transparency!
Since you pretending to have consumed and responded to two completely different posts within a minute...
I understand how that might have looked , and I really appreciate you giving me the chance to explain.
I actually read the posts myself before commenting. The fact is, I always use my cellphone, but then earlier I moved on to laptop because my phone was lagging and that's probably the reason the comments seemed to be so closely spaced. I am really sorry for the mix up , and I will definitely be more cautious in the future.
It's fine as long as you're not trying to fake effort and activity here. You can probably imagine what this place would become if everyone did that and you couldn't get a hold of a real person to talk to if ai bots are handling everyone's social activity. Let's not go down the same path as Facebook and others delving and allowing such activities fo flourish.
I mean it would automatically do it cause that's how hive works.
Are you generating your comments using AI and pretending to be reading posts?
cool idea! yea.. that sounds like fun.. but in a smart way.. :)
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Greetings, I'm trying to understand. So far, I know it's about predictions and betting, hehe, but I'll try to follow your posts on the idea to learn more. What I can tell you about CommentRewarder is that at first I didn't use it or understand it very well, but after a while I've fully grasped it and it's one of the best Hive features I know and use. If this idea you're proposing is just as innovative, I'd like to know more about it, but I'll take my time.
What I understand sounds great; it's about betting with our voting power, and if we're right, we get benefits, profits. And if we're wrong, we get nothing. I think it's possible to make predictions with a 7-day timeframe because in Hive, the world of cryptocurrencies, at my school, and in life, a lot happens in seven days or less, hehehe. My friend got mad at me, and my other friends bet that she'd talk to me in a month, and that didn't happen; she talked to me the next day, hehehe. So they would have lost, and I would have won because I know she doesn't go more than two days without talking to me, hehehe.
So, 7 days seems like a good timeframe to me.
This is actually a really cool idea, and realistically, it could attract a new demographic of users who aren't interested in writing or reading content and give them a reason to power up their accounts.
I love betting; right now I bet on sports, but your proposal would be interesting if it's about something exciting that will generate interest among a wide audience. It's an excellent idea to motivate Web2 users to become interested in Hive because betting has a huge potential.