Protests erupt.

in #protests2 months ago

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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/26/world/asia/china-protests-covid.html

This whole situation may be the second biggest geopolitical issue over the next year behind what happens in Ukraine.

China is seeing growing defiance of the regime in response to the brutal lockdowns and controls that are necessary if you want to drive Omicron to zero. When I saw the numbers on Omicron's transmissibility, I figured China's policy would break fairly quickly; it's a surprise to me they've managed this long.

Outright defiance of the regime and public calls for regime change are just one angle. Politically, having massive wave of covid deaths, after all the costs of the zero covid policy, has the potential to cause rapid change.

This wave seems inevitable as resistance rises and winter approaches. When it hits, it's going to be rapid and ugly. China has miserable vaccine coverage among the older cohorts, and their medical systems may well collapse, especially outside of major urban centers.

All this as the Chinese economy seems to be teetering. Epidemic, death, recession and regime change could all happen in the next six months, with significant worldwide repercussions.