Cindicator is a forecasting dApp built on top of ethereum blockchain. The dApp requires an analyst (or not) to enter forecasts for crypto markets and traditional markets. The team also runs other monthly or themed contests.
I have been using the app for almost 1 year now. Earlier the rewards were in ethereum but are now paid out in their native token - CND. For every question that a user answers, he/she is awarded points. Those points translate into a ranking and rewards are distributed based on one's relative performance.
The app has recently been redesigned. I think the new interface is super sleek. An earlier version looked like this -
The above image is borrowed from play store, as I dont have the old version on m phone. However the new one is much improved and easier to play around with.
Before I move on to the level of questions, here is a list of all contests being run -
Crypto pro 5 is about forecasting the direction of a crypto pair ie relative performance of an alt versus bitcoin or against tether. An example would be, will trxbtc go up 15% first or down 15% first.
While this sounds easy, the volatility and surprise movement in crypto can take the best of anyone. My accuracy so far in this is 40% as I have been more hopeful than practical.
EPS season 3 is about earnings results. It's run quarterly, (duh!) and this time comes with a slight modification. It was earlier about forecasting whether a company will beat market consensus or not which more often than not, a company does. However, this time, they want one to forecast guidance given by a company and stock performance a day after. Now this is tricky, as in the current environment, it's not easy to say what a company is facing versus what it will say and macro can strongly dilute earnings outcome.
Group Crypto is an absolutely new thing. They have made a telegram group of 5 people, and we have to give a consensus forecast for i think 1 question a day. The question, only 1, so far has been about crypto pairs. Will evaluate this contest as and when the contest goes on.
Open crypto is about forecasting daily directional moves, monthly and weekly price ranges, and relative performance of altcoins. It also has theoretical questions asking opinions about let's say, libra. One also has to forecast questions such as whether steem inc will launch smt as per their scheduled plan. 🙄
Open traditional is almost the same, except that its for equities, fx and commodities.
The prize fund for each contest is shown next to the dApp.
Now, for my opinion. I have already stated my opinion about the questions. I think with 100 thousand plus engaged users, its a great tool to play around with and see how good one is at predicting crypto prices. If one is learning TA and wants to practice it with no investment, this could be a very useful tool.
The app looks slick, is easy to operate and rewards are timely sent to your linked ethereum wallet. If you finish in top 50, earlier you were given access to Cindicator bot - A market prediction tool combining AI and power of top CND analysts. It's a paid service for institutions.
The team does well to keep tweaking the questions so that the app doesn't get boring. New contests are launched every month and I am forecasting something every day.
The ranking and gamification of forecasting is really good. Also, it tells you how well your accuracy is in each of the competitions, so you get to know your strengths and weaknesses and can improve as an analyst.
The negatives are some questions that I don't think make sense. For example a question asking whether Facebook's testimony in front of Congress about Libra will impact price positively or negatively makes no sense. There is absolutely no way to tell if such an event is even impacting the share price at all.
I really recommend everyone to try out the app. I think something like this implemented on steem blockchain would also be nice. I don't know if it can be done or not.
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Hello @karamyog.
Nice review of Cindicator.
The Dapp looks really promising and is certainly worth checking out, the idea is also really unique and innovative as I don't think I have heard of any identical idea of such application anywhere else.
You feel a question like the blockquouted one below does not make sense?
whether Facebook's testimony in front of Congress about Libra will impact price positively or negatively makes no senseWell, in my opinion a question like that actually makes sense since we live in a world where government opinion shapes a lot of the public opinion, so Facebook's testimony to the congress will definitely have an impact on the price of Libra.
It is now left to the person predicting to decide if the effect will be negative or positive.
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Thank you!
The app is quite unique, there is one other app I know but that required one to buy their token and play.
I see your point about Facebook. However, imo, Facebook's key revenue is ads and libra doesn't exist yet. If libra doesn't launch, nothing significant changes about FB, to impact it's stock price. Moreover, a trump tweet could have a far greater impact on tech stock prices.
My point was with so many variables (trade war, economic indicators, central bank action, earnings season), all acting at once, how can one decide if price movement can be attributed to one variable.
Thanks a lot for commenting. With tribes I'm seeing more interaction on my content off late, which is great!
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Nice review.
Thanks a ton!
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