Thank you for your long reply, @apshamilton!
Here just a short answer (I'll address your arguments tomorrow):
I do not say that Ukraine will win. I say that Russia will lose. This is about more than semantics.
Did France win WW2? I‘d say they were on the winners‘ side, but after the war France was devastated. Germany was rather quickly rebuilt and was economically better off for decades. In my opinion Ukraine and Russia are both losing badly.
Even if Russia wins this war, it will probably never fully control Ukraine, and the costs (economic and casualties-related) to control it would be immense, and this would destroy Russia over the long term. That’s why I hope that Israel eliminates Hamas very quickly, send Arabs from Gaza to Egypt or Jordan or Syria, can then go home and enjoy long-term peace. Long-term wars destroy all participants.
It is true there are substantial costs for all sides in a long term war but I think Europe is suffering more than Russia and has worse long term prospects.
Both Europe and Russia are facing demographic oblivion as is China (even sooner).
Totally agree that Israel needs to finish Hamas. This delay in taking Rafah trying to keep Biden happy is pointless and bad for the hostages.
Exactly, add the Russian anti-Putin troops fighting on the borders, and now you are going to see attacks in the heart of the Russian capital.
Russia's worst enemy is Putin.