I will agree on the more broad point though that allowing SBD to be printed up to the 10% debt limit does increase the chance that we will pass it. That was fully acknowledged and stated in the post.
I would disagree slightly. That may be the case, or it may not. It is still somewhat speculative in that it depends on the extent that SBD remains overvalued and therefore isn't being converted. That in turn depends on both market expectations and on the actual effect of printing more SBD (increasing numerator, assuming SBD is overvalued and not being converted) vs. less STEEM (potentially increasing denominator, if this results in a higher STEEM price than otherwise, as seems likely). Overall the effect on the probability of reaching 10% is not clear to me from first principles.
I'll concede to that. There are certainly some market conditions where the change will make it less likely to exceed the debt limit, and others where it will make it more likely.
The recent downward trend has been one of the closer calls we have had as far as actually hitting the limit, and I'd go so far as to say that with the change in place we probably wouldn't have gotten as close (due to reduced downward pressure on STEEM).