During my lunch break I posted and then, had a coffee with a friend who I haven't seen for about 6 months. Whenever we meet we get to talk about the things that many other people don't find interesting, Of course, other people find these things interesting but, not in our direct circles meaning, our wives. It was his last day of summer holidays and he mentioned something interesting.
We were talking about Artificial Intelligence and how it might play out in the future for various groups and how people would react. He said that he was glad to be going back to work because, even a few weeks into his holiday, he realized that he didn't really have anything to do. His son is older now and, his wife was working through.
Even though he had things he could do, he still soon got bored and, him being him, started considering how he or other people may react in a situation where that was the new normal.
A lot of people seem to think that just like the industrial revolution, new jobs will be created after AI and automation become the norm but, they don't consider that humans have two core skills, physical and mental. When jobs in the physical industries were lost, new jobs were created in the thinking areas and education closed the gap. The difference this time is that when AI comes in, there is no next step for humans to move to.
Yes, there will be new jobs created on the way but they will not be created at the same speed they are lost and, most people are going to be unable to fill many of those types of positions. Some claim that even a general level AI couldn't have creativity and that will always stay in the realm of humans but, I disagree. Not that it matters though since there still will not be enough creative positions and people creative enough to perform at the level needed, even if there was. It is like having job positions open but one has to be Da Vinci or Einstein level to qualify.
When it comes to creativity however, for all intents and purposes, a decent AI could mimic human level creativity through sheer volume of information access and the ability to trial and error any combination of them in simulation with immense speed and accuracy. It would potentially be able to live a million human life times simultaneously in minutes. Regardless how one looks at the likely outcomes in the future, most people are at a very high probability of never being able to work again.
So, what does one do when nothing needs to be done? This is the question that many people should start asking and preparing for, and their children. People dream about winning the lottery and being able to do whatever they want without work but, what about being able to do whatever they want with a limited capacity? People are much less sure when asked about this.
Many think that they will pick up hobbies, do the things they never had the time for before and travel and the like, but going on the evidence of most people's current use of free time, this is not the case at all. Most people when given space and opportunity with limited capacity, they use it to consume the work of others. Gaming, Youtube, TV, shows, books, social media and all types of passive activity fill the space of opportunity. What happens when that space is a lifetime long?
A lot of people don't seem or avoid seeing that life meaning is an important factor of human existence and it doesn't really matter where it comes from. Some people are artists who feel that their painting is their offering to the world and gives life purpose, some are stock traders who do the similar in a different realm. Some think collecting stamps is meaningful, others giving to charity. It doesn't really matter, people seek purpose and assign meaning to things regardless of their actual value.
I think that this sets up a problem when there is nothing that really needs doing because, humans will either find something to do or, get depressed for not being able to discover their purpose in life. One will lead to activity in irrelevant and potentially harmful under an idle hands are the devils tools scenario and, the other sets up a deep seeded dissatisfaction with one's life.
Filling the space with consumption might take the mind off it for a while but, when that while stretches for 100 years, can one maintain avoiding reflecting on experience? Is there enough compelling content and material to keep a mind occupied for a lifetime?
If we look at Star Trek as a fictional representation of a world where AI has taken care of all of life's basic needs, what would happen if the Klingons and the Borg weren't antagonists? Without the push and pull of conflict, life becomes decidedly, lame. A show not worth watching. Humans evolve on stress, conflict, needs and desires and if they are provided for by an Artificial Intelligence, there is potentially nothing to drive us onward into the future.
People can confidently proclaim their views on what a future with general level AI would look like, they can predict the timeline it is going to take to reach it or, how they think it will behave once awake enough but, they really don't know. The reason they think they can predict it is because they believe that because it is man-made intelligence, it will think similarly to man but, as soon as it clicks over and wakes even slightly, it becomes something altogether new and different and in an instant, it will have a multitude of thoughts, experiences and resulting ideas that have never been had before. No one can actually know how it will think once it has experienced what no human can.
For me, I am trying to come to terms with what I predict to be my own obsolescence and how to help my daughter develop in a way that even though she may never be able to have a job or earn a dollar, she is still capable of building a life of experiences that give her meaning and the drive to keep on wanting to experience more of it.
Perhaps it is our will for more that makes us scared of death, makes us struggle and push despite odds, makes us keep dreaming and imagining that there is more for us to do, more to discover that, there is meaning to our existence. Many find this purpose in what they do, in their work and action to improve. Take away meaning en masse and my prediction is, many will struggle to find a center, an anchor, a tether that keeps them from drifting away from life itself.
If one subscribes to the ideas of Maslow's Hierarchy of needs, the two lower levels may be achievable and provided by artificial intelligence. But, then what? Often the friends and intimate relationships are tied to what one does, as are the needs for accomplishment and prestige. Are they still possible to the same degree, will they be weaker or stronger and, will not having to work for the first two be able to satisfy the top level of self-actualization, fulfilling potential.
The future amy be altogether different but, it is best to think about possibility before decision critical is reached. Do you know what are you going to do when you don't have to do anything? Are you sure you are able to do that for life considering that you are likely going to have restricted resources? Is it even possible to objectively imagine what that future may feel like?
Perhaps it is an unanswerable question until we experience it for ourselves.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]
I remember a similar conversation cropping up on G+ some time ago. A similar question was explored (on what people would do when AIs took over their jobs). Some people in creative endeavours felt that they were pretty safe as there was a firm belief that no matter how good AI got they would never, ever compare to a human. I personally didn't care if AIs became sentient and cogniscient and masterful novel writers and movie makers, I would go ahead telling stories because I like doing it XD
Assuming not too much else changes (we can still live in a house and pursue whatever interests and activities) there's so much stuff we would love to be doing instead of this "working for a living" crap. But that's us, can only speculate how people in general would deal with it. But yeh it's hard ot know how things are going to be if/when that occurs :)
Working for a living sucks but, so does doing nothing for a life, in my opinion. I would have absolutely no trouble finding things to do with my life I find rewarding however, I predict people overestimate their own abilities to do so.
When transitioning to homeschooling from traditional schooling, a period of deschooling usually happens:
or in a nutshell "relax and don't do much for a little while". I don't have any experience with this as none of my kids ever went to school, I have heard/read recommendations of 1 month for every year the child has been at school. Guess some would take more or less time depending on the person. It doesn't seem too far a stretch that any given adult used to a 9-5 office job with possible insane overtime who suddenly gets dropped would undergo a similar process. If the rough guideline of 1 month for each year spent in the workforce is applied it wouldn't be too surprising for some people to spend a year or so being a lazy mass consumer before finally getting around to doing all of those things that they said they wanted to do :)
AI will change many aspects of our lives but no matter how good or optimizd the AI is, it will never be sentient. Humans will always have that extra sauce that will drive future endeavors and discoveries. What will we do when we have nothing to do? Things we WANT to do, not out of force or necessity but by desires. With proper education and understanding of the nature of desires, we can steer away from negative consumption of media and harness the positives.
What people don't seem to realize is that most humans aren't very creative at all, that the 'extra sauce' as you put it only is accessible by the very few. We live in a world driven by desire now and as Buddha said thousands of years ago, it is the root of all suffering.
Most humans may not fulfill their potential, but they still have the ability to unlock that feature. We can divide humans broadly between producers (leaders, creative minds) and consumers (masses, followers). And yes, the consumers outnumber the producers by a large, magnitude in the different societies we live in. Social hierarchy has its way of distributing roles to individuals.
AI can NEVER truly be like a human. They can mimic humans and do certain things way above our capabilities (in fields of computation, analysis and like). But can AI feel emotions and sadness? Will AI feel pain if we treat them poorly? They may be able to fake those responses but they won't be real.
As for Buddha and the view of suffering, I subscribe to a different philosophical school of thought. I view desires as a good thing as long as a healthy balance is maintained. Life is a beautiful gift, and is to be lived completely with happiness, desires and all the other good things in life.
I once said I had never tasted the pleasure of doing nothing, @tarazkp, and many friends protested my claim. I've done so much in the day that I'd like to sometimes take some time to unplug myself. Even when I'm on vacation, I'm thinking about work, the things I could do to make money. I would like, when I am old, to have a house near the sea and many books, perhaps a good wine. But in the meantime, in order to have that future, I have to work. Death will come to rest! It's always good to read to you.
I dream of a house near the sea too but, so do 7 billion other people people. What is possible? Who knows.
Yes, what do "most people" do on their free time? Where's the evidence? Sure, gaming, television, shows, books and social media exist. What do you know about "most people's" use of free time? How does your wife use her free time? Your in-laws? Friends? How passive a use of time is reading a book really? How much do we engage in passive forms of spending our free time because were too tired to do anything else because of our work and family obligations?
Every major civilization in history has had a leisure class. It's not a complete mystery as to what happens when a group of people have the opportunity to do what they please with their time. Some waste it, others find meaningful pursuits.
My wife spends far too long scrolling FB and instagram and her friends are worse. Her parents do sudoku and listen to the radio after working their entire lives til they retired.
The entertainment industry is massive yet, most of the people who spend their money in there are unable to find the time to learn about investing, economy or politics.
US in trillions.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/237749/value-of-the-global-entertainment-and-media-market/
In general, people don't use their resources well which gives room for the AI anyway. Once they have more resources, I don't see te average person changing their habits much. Depression in the world is growing, prescription opiod abuse in white middle class americans is in epidemic proportions as are their deaths with some 17,000 dying from it in 2016. I don't see thses things as indicators of health.
The problem is that we don't actually look at this, we take our own experiences without factoring in what others are experiencing. What people call poor in Finland is very wealthy somewhere else. When 70% are out of work? Things are going to break in ways unimaginable.
One way things may break is women's preferences for mates. For eons, they have valued men as protectors and providers. In advanced civilizations, the protector role is gone. When work is no more, so does the provider role. With time on their hands and robots to help them in all the domestic chores including childcare, women may not need men even for that too much. Men will only have pure entertainment value to them. From what I can tell, most men are pretty terrible in that department from their wives' perspective. lol
One thing we haven't yet discussed is AI-powered virtual worlds. To address all the concerns we can see unfolding before our eyes or can infer virtual worlds of every conceivable description could be created. That's whole another level of possibility (or threat).
Yes. we can see a problem now.
Millenials are having less sex than gen-x. Sad.
random article:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/janetwburns/2016/08/16/millennials-are-having-less-sex-than-other-gens-but-experts-say-its-probably-fine/#5dcd65ecd958
Many don't want to have sex, they are fulfilled (for the time being) by whatever else they are consuming. They are less socially capable and in worse physical condition. Given that thy have access to the best education, food, resources and information at any time in history, it is pretty appalling.
One thing we haven't yet discussed is AI-powered virtual worlds.
I have written a little about them and is a likely step after augmented reality. advances far enough. Gamified life.
That people don't want as much sex as they used to is appalling? That's exactly what the world needs. Less sex and relationships = fewer babies. The world is very badly overcrowded as it is. Add 4-6 billion and we're going to drown in our own filth.
Women have never been too crazy about sex compared to men. What's driving the non-sex revolution is men. Increasingly, young men want to have nothing to do with sex and relationships for a host of reasons one of which is how they have seen their older relatives or friends get shafted in divorce court. The detrimental effects of consumerism afflict women particularly badly. In the past, women and their gatherer instincts were put to excellent use in a forest close to home. Acted on in a modern shopping mall, they do little but get them to incur debt and add to financial pressure felt by the main breadwinner (still the man in most cases) in search of the next item advertisers have convinced them they must have. Add to that the ever-present media imagery, gossip magazines, the meat market style dating culture and you will get women with their natural hypergamy turned into overdrive. This is particularly horrible in Japan where between a third and a half of young men have totally opted out of relationships. Men are responding to incentives in western countries, too. Through my hobbies I've known guys who are 10-15 years my junior and noticed how much smarter they are about this than my own age cohort was at their age. They're not stupid horndogs or obsessed with any notions of externally defined manliness (they're not without virtue, though) that control them but smart guys with an independent spirit capable of doing cost-benefit analysis.
"They are less socially capable and in worse physical condition. Given that they have access to the best education, food, resources and information at any time in history, it is pretty appalling."
This is appalling. So smart yet, so unhealthy. Look at the numbers of 18 year olds who can't make it through basic army training these days. I am not saying army is great, I am saying that an 18 year old should have some level of physical ability considering their access and means.
This often comes down to social ability also, not just the law. People with low level social skills don't tend to make wise relationship decisions nor handle relationships or breakups as the case may be well either.
THe technological revolution has made social connection a numbers game, that has nothing to do with ability to understand people or, build social relationships. The increasing divorce rate isn't about freedom in my opinion, it is about poor decision making at the outset.
I don't think relationships were any better in our parents' or grandparents' generation despite they did not have Facebook to ruin their social skills. They just couldn't divorce as easily even if they had spouses from hell because of the social stigma of divorce and their lack of economic means.
And have the social skills of the young really been ruined? I seriously doubt that. In some ways, I think, young people have better social skills than my generation. They're more tolerant of individual differences, drink less, and are less violent and criminal.
You think it's just because people marry the wrong people? And that's because they don't bother to get to know their prospective spouses before they tie the knot? I don't think so because cohabiting for years is very common before marriage.
Sexual relationships are a very special kind of social connection. That thing is and has always been much more acutely instict-driven than most of our other relationships. I think the divorce rate is simply a product of longer life expectancy, more freedom and wealth and the fact that we have never been a pure monogamous pair-bonding species. We're somewhere between a tournament and a pair-bonding species. We used to have cultural institutions in place that forced married couples to stay together no matter what but now those institutions have weakened to a great deal. Nature is rearing its head.
The leisure class has the means to do as they choose, that isn't likely to be possible for everyone. Not all can ravel even though they may want to, not all can live on a beach, even though they might want to. The leisure class has wealth, being provided for doesn't necessarily mean access to wealth, just time.
in 20 16, the average for TV per day in the US was just over 5 hours a day. The average for social media was 2 with 45 mins on youtube. consume what others create is what most do with the free time they have it seems. not everyone, but many. When all they have is free time, do they change their behaviour?
That's a good point, although wealth is a relative thing. An unemployed person in a rich country today has a pretty material high standard of living compared to a member of the upper class many hundreds of years ago.
That's an unanswered question. I don't any society has ever seen anything like 80-99% structural unemployment. By the way, I have a little difficulty believing that the average American watches television five hours a day on average on top of using social media for almost three hours. When are Americans supposed to sleep, cook, clean their home, run errands, shop for groceries, look after their children, be present at PTA meetings, take their kids to hobbies and commute to work? Something's off with those numbers. The TV may be on five hours a day in a home with nobody actively watching it most of the time but there simply aren't enough hours in a day to do all that. Kids have school. Americans have very short holidays. And I don't think pensioners watch TV non-stop to bridge the gap.
I believe that the ideal of many people is to make a profit without much effort. Living and having some things worked out: the future, for example. Technology can be harmful if we're stuck with it. I have seen that some of my classmates at school are unable to do basic math operations and have to use a calculator. It's sad for them, and so on. Stopping using your skills will certainly have negative consequences.
People need to start asking themselves if what they do can be replaced by something else. If the answer is yes then they need to look for something that can't be.
If the answer is yes then they need to look for something that can't be.
I don't think there is going to be the room for even the people who are actively doing this as many of the positions will be out of reach of many people.
I try not to think too much about it. What we do really is more or less who we are. I think the modern day human underestimates the power of dedicating oneself to a craft.
if AI begins to do the thinking for us, eventually we'll be left with two choices - find something fulfilling besides work or revolt
This is true yet, how many will discover it? Poeple can justify a lot of useless as value but, does it last a lifetime?
The seek of purpose comes when the basic needs are fulfilled, my concern is that in many cases people are going to lose their jobs without any compensation. There are talks about universal basic income when AI takes over all the work, but I don't know if that is really going to be implemented everywhere . At least I think we can still earning in the blockchain.
"Take away meaning en masse and my prediction is, many will struggle to find a center"
You only have to look at what happened to the Aboriginal people in Australia, who practiced walkabout and dreamtime, for 60,000 years, across land that was owned by nobody, until we came along and ruined it for them.
The meaning in their lives evaporating as the last aboriginal came in from walkabout, alcoholism and drug use and depression ravaged their communities.
This is a possible future for everybody who doesn't feel useful or have meaning in their lives. I suspect a Matrix will be created for humans to live fantasy lives of usefulness, and that will be a drug most people will never unplug from.
I'm probably too old to ever live in that world, but I worry for future generations. :(
This was engineered... but yes, they were destroyed.
@Markkujantunen mentioned the same and I agree.
I think I am borderline in age but, my condition means I am unlikely to see it.