The global commodities market is sending a clear and somewhat counterintuitive signal that war is no longer automatically bullish for precious metals. In the wake of escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, while gold and silver have sharply declined, upending traditional “safe haven” expectations and raising new concerns about inflation and economic stability.
At the center of the market turmoil is the disruption of global energy flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Iran’s effective blockade, combined with direct strikes on key energy infrastructure, has triggered a supply shock reverberating across global markets. Recent attacks, including strikes on Iran’s massive South Pars gas field and broader regional energy infrastructure, have compounded fears of prolonged shortages. Brent crude has surged above $100 per barrel! So gasoline prices globally are climbing sharply. It's not talked about but the supply chains from fuel to fertilizers are under strain hitting farmers once again.
Even if the conflict cools, analysts warn oil prices could remain structurally elevated due to damaged infrastructure and long term geopolitical risk premiums. Not only that the oil spike is feeding directly into inflation expectations arguably the most important driver behind the unusual behavior in metals. The International Monetary Fund has warned that sustained energy price increases could push global inflation higher, reduce economic growth and increase recession risks... This inflation shock is changing how markets price assets. Instead of fleeing to gold, investors are reacting to the possibility of higher interest rates for longer.
My portfolio is representative of the recent move pulling back from recent highs. I'm glad I unloaded all my metal and paper silver near the top!
That's quite a dump silver is doing... With war times it's pretty unpredictable
Not to mention trump tweets
And inside trade of 2 days ago...
I’m still being paid to pump free gasoline into my car, so I’m still doing better than most… I use Cash and don’t need a receipt… I always get 50 Cents in change back…
really?
I’ve been doing it for years…ever since I first thought of it… U.S. Pocket Change will be Grandfathered into U.S. Stable Coinage…
I'm curious, if interest rates goes higher, does this mean Time Deposit rates also goes up? Or you mean to say the borrowing rate?
Usually both go up, but not equally or instantly.
When people say “interest rates are going higher,” they’re typically referring to benchmark rates set or influenced by the Federal Reserve (like the federal funds rate). That change ripples through the entire financial system.
Borrowing rates (move first and fastest). These include: Credit cards, Auto loans, Mortgages and Business loans. Banks raise these quickly because higher benchmark rates increase their cost of lending. So borrowing becomes more expensive almost immediately.
Time deposit rates (CDs, savings) usually move more slowly or often by a smaller amount. Banks don’t rush to raise deposit rates unless they need to compete for customers’ money.
Hopefully the price will definitely recover as I am so sure of that
We will see markets are wild right now
Safe haven’s new address: the gas station pump 💸
Even oil price are moving wildly
Those who had planned to invest now have a good opportunity to invest in silver
I want lower metals
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