Soccer Predictions for 29/09/2017

in #soccer7 years ago

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Here's what happened on the 27th September 2017

MatchPredictionResultReturn
Birmingham v SheffieldSheffield1-0£0.00

Winnings: £0.00
Closing Balance: £8.65

Here is my prediction for the 29th September 2017

MatchPredictionProb%My OddsBetfair Odds
Monaco v Montpellier>2.591.261.091.9

(The code predicted Monaco win with a 95.72% probability giving odds of 1.04. However, Betfair were only offering odds of 1.33. My backtesting suggests 70% accuracy which should mean that as long as I only bet at odds of over 1.42 I should make a profit. For this match it predicted 91.26% probability for 3 or more goals, giving odds of 1.09. Since Betfair are offering 1.9, >2.5 seems like a more valuable bet.)

Opening balance: £8.65
Bets: 1 * £1 single
Remaining balance: £7.65

Predicted with some ugly Python code.
I've posted articles explaining how it was done - Part1, Part2, Part3, Part4,Part5.
Code available here.

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Great odd on betfair, unfortunatly they don't have a license in Portugal anymore..I have a 1,28 odd in the site I use lol

Oh, no. Failed again.
1-1 draw with Montpolier scoring in the 92nd minute. Ouch.