What’s happening in the South African Elections.
In less than a week’s time South Africa will have it’s 6th democratic General elections and Provincial Elections where the South African voting population will be heading to the polls to vote the number of seats each political party of their choosing will get and as well as the number seats political parties will get in the National council of Provinces.
What makes this election so Different.
Well the African National Congress (ANC) which has been the ruling government and held the majority of seats in Parliament since the first democratic elections in 1994 has had corruption and scandal filled 9 years under President Jacob Zuma which has caused a lot of dissatisfaction amongst voters against the current ruling party which may result in the ANC suffering a historical loss where they may lose a significant amount of seats in Parliament. Polling sources in South Africa have indicated that the government’s majority may drop from their current 62% to as low as 52%. This has huge implications for the ANC’s power in South Africa because a growing opposition will put more pressure on the government over certain issues and restrict them when trying to pass certain controversial bills through parliament such as the Land expropriation without Compensation Bill.
A Stronger Opposition in Parliament.
3 significant things are happening with the growth of Opposition in Parliament. The first is that despite the horrible past 9 years the ruling party has had the official opposition party which is the Democratic Alliance or DA for short, will not see any significant growth and may even lose votes in this election, this is because of a mixture of bad leadership, infighting and a general loss of direction under the current Opposition Party leader Mmusi Maimane. The official opposition party was initially a white liberal party that had its initial voter base in white liberal South Africans and further started incorporating other minority voters such as Indians and coloureds, but in the last 5 years under Mmusi Maimane they’ve begun trying to attract black voters which are the majority of the electorate with policies such as BBEEE policies that focuses on preferential treatment for blacks over any other race group and policies that help previously disadvantage people under Apartheid. This approach hasn’t helped because it has alienated their original voter base as well as the party is still looked as white liberal party in the eyes of many black voters which has prevented them from voting for the DA.
The second thing that is happening in the opposition benches in parliament is that a Black nationalist left wing party which goes by the name Economic Freedom Fighters is going to see significant growth in this election, some polls estimate it will grow from 6,5% to 10% or even as high as 14%. This is due to their populist policies such as Expropriation land without compensation, nationalizing of banks and mines as well as providing free universal healthcare, free tertiary education and increasing the minimum wage that has attracted a lot of black voters who are disgruntled with the ANC and African youth which is also their main supporter base.
And the final thing is that a record number of smaller parties will be on the ballot paper this election which will lead to more small parties being in parliament and which will significantly give small parties more influence in South African politics.
The rise of socialism and radical black nationalism.
This election is also showing how South African politics is moving further left and even some parties being openly socialist like the EFF. This rise of socialism is also accompanied with radical black nationalism, this is most evident with policies such as Land Expropriation without Compensation which is a policy which will see the Government being able to take Land that was deemed to be stolen under colonization and Apartheid and will be given back to the indigenous people. This rise of radical black nationalism has also seen parties such as EFF, Black First Land First and the Land party using populist statements and policies to attack the white minority in South Africa and as well as using strong emotions of dissent and anger amongst black South Africans to attract them to vote for their parties.
The ANC’s response to all of this.
The ruling party has been on a campaign of reform and has even forced it’s previous leader Jacob Zuma to step down and has replaced him with South Africa’s current president Cyril Ramaphosa. They’ve been using Cyril Ramaphosa and he’s popularity as an electioneering tool because of how he is liked by the South African media and how he’s been seen as a savvy business magnate who can bring reform to the sluggish South African economy. The problem that comes in is that within the Ruling party Jacob Zuma’s corrupt allies and alliances are still present in the ANC and still have significant power over Cyril Ramaphosa as seen in his presidential cabinet that still has a lot of Jacob Zuma’s allies that have been implicated in cases which involve State corruption.
What will the Final results of the 2019 elections be.
From independent polls being done around the country they show that the ANC will slip to 52% of the vote, the DA will get 23% and the EFF will increase 13% which is very unlikely and in my opinion the results will be more like 58% of the vote will go to the ANC, 23% will still go to the DA and 11% will go to the EFF and the rest will go to smaller parties. Parliament will still be majority held by the ANC but their power in Parliament will be significantly weakened and the ANC will rely more on working with opposition parties and compromising more on certain issues but only the 8th of May will tell what the final result of the elections will be.
References
https://irr.org.za/reports
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2019-EFF-MANIFESTO-FINAL.pdf
Congratulations @ketumile! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :
You can view your badges on your Steem Board and compare to others on the Steem Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word
STOPDo not miss the last post from @steemitboard:
Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness to get one more award and increased upvotes!