Full disclaimer from the start! I own all of the Alpha summoners including the legendary Selenia Sky! I have maxed them out a long time ago, probably more than two years now. I don’t have any intention of selling them anytime soon.
This said I still strongly believe that the maxed out alpha summoners are one of the most undervalued cards in the game.
Most of the Splinterlands fans are aware that the price per single card (BCX) drops as the cards get combined more and more. It has been the case for a long time now and it is something that has been accepted from most of the players. It acts as a discount for larger purchase.
Here are some examples.
The Creeping ooze has a price of 1.5 to 2 $ per single card for the highest levels, and for a single card it goes for 10$ each. A X5 difference at least!
The Goblin mech has a 2 $ price for a maxed out card and a 6$ for single card.
The above are common neutral cards.
If we take a look at the Alpha summoners we get this.
A 57$ to 117$ price, or an X2 for Malric Inferno.
Next one of the most wanted alpha summoners, the water one.
A 79$ to 270$ or more than X4, etc.
As mentioned this has been the case for a long time. Why would it change now?
Enter Land
As we know land will be used to craft items from the players and then use those items in battles to further enhance your cards.
The thing is land as most of the Splinterlands assets is capped. There is limited amount of PLOTs, TRACTs (x100 PLOT) and REGIONs (x1000 PLOT). To be able to mine resources from the land you will need to put cards on each plot. The better and stronger the card, the better it mines.
Why would anyone want to put a level one common card on a precious piece of land that has a limited supply?
It’s obvious that everyone will want to put the best miners/cards in their lands to mine resource. What will be the best miners? You can make correlation to collection power that each card gives.
The gold foil will obviously be again at price. From the rarity perspective the alpha cards will also be better miners then beta, or all the other collections that comes after. Summoners will be a better miners then monsters, and legendary cards from everything else.
I might be wrong but I think there is around 500k plots in general, contained in all the types of land, that means there will be a need from a 500k top quality cards. The numbers for gold foil cards are extremely low, and even lower for the alpha edition.
These are all the legendary gold foil alpha cards available for sale.
Only three types of cards! And there is like 25 of each in circulation.
Here are the Alpha summoners regular foil.
Selenia has around 500 in circulation and the rest around 3k. But these are all of the levels. If we take into account only the maxed out the constrain in the supply is massive. I expect once when the land update is live, more cards to be maxed out in order to fill the land with quality miners, that will push the supply of the cards to amazing low numbers.
For example, here is Selenia Sky, alpha edition.
The supply is ridiculously low even now. After the land and the boos that all the maxed out early edition cards will get, and especially the summoners, I can see the supply get constrained further and the bids for the cards go higher. The liquidity for an NFTs can always be an issue in case if you want to sell as well, and having some patience is always welcomed 😊.
If you need some indicator about things going in this direction, take a look at the recent DEC rewards changes, from square to cube. With this change the low leagues, bronze got hit and the higher leagues, where the maxed out cards are needed got more rewards. The market calculated this change immediately with more maxed out cards being sold, the price increased and the price for renting the maxed out cards increased as well.
The introduction of land in theory should achieve the same effect multiplied on a large scale.
At the end I want to make a full disclaimer again as a Splinterlands maxed out Alpha summoner’s owner. I’m biased. I rarely make prediction posts as I know that everything can happen, and it is hard to predict the future.
But in this case, the game theory, the numbers and the experience from similar events are all pointing out to this. Off course by the time land comes out, the market might turn bearish and drag down everything with it. In that case you will just need to hodl and wait for a few more years for the scenario above to play out and the Splinterlands team to deliver as they have till now. I know for sure I will be hodling for many more years to come 😊.
All the best
@dalz
There are a total of 150,000 plots of land, not 500,000 - so less than a third of what you were thinking.
Definitely seems like Gold Foils, and cards that aren't actually super competitive in the game, will skyrocket once they can become farm labor :-)
So you're saying, buy up gold foil cards now? :o).
I mean, I was saying that in July when GFLs were $450 for the cheapest 3 or 4 of them haha!
Definitely, lands are going to change the whole playing field. There's a LOT of practically useless cards that will be put to work (lifting the bottom of the market), and a lot of super high end cards will be used for farming as well, removing them from [competitive] play.
You're right and I sincerely hope (to be completely honest and greedy for the moment), the bear market hits before devs introduce land into the game. I hope to scoop up a few plots until then, but at a lower price than today for sure.
Have you included tract and region in the above?
There's only 150k plots of land total. Tracts and Regions are part of the 150k total. If you're looking at the Hive Engine token max supply, we didn't know the breakdown of plots tracts and regions at the time we created the tokens so we just made there be enough to cover everything, but we've been very clear that there will only be 150k land plots in total.
Yes I was looking at the HE supply :)
Thanks for the clarification.... 150k it is!
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When Matt Chimes in with the Cold Hard FACTS !!!
Thank You
@yabapmatt
One of the best things about this place :)
I agree
As for me I try not to be predictive whatsoever, especially when it comes to Splinterlands, emotions can tend to run high because of what is involved (money). Thanks for actually telling me what the lands are meant to really do; mine resources. 500k lands, now a few people will own multiple of these lands per person. It keeps driving up the value. You're right, the lower leagues gets the hit.
I agree compared to other cards they are too cheap. But we don't know the impact from CL and high-level cards are pretty in liquid.
Newer players ( i expect) buy some level 1 cards they need. Only some whales buy alpha max level. IMO there are cheap but also hold a higher risk to hold. Special if we think about it, not everyone has some land. I don't have any.
IMO it is highly speculative, if lands work well, nice investment. If not the cards are really hard to sell :D
True I mentioned that liquidity cam be an issue and you will need to have some patiance. But if you are not in a hury to sell .... they might be a great hodl long term .... and you can rent them out any time
I bought a max Alpha Lyanna the other day, $1700. For pretty much exactly this reason.
I expect I'll step away from battling when land rolls out; and just use all of my cards on land.
1700 is a steal :)
Yes, it'd cost more than twice that now. Couldn't pass it up.
I love this theory with Land Plots. I might even have to cancel some of me rentals to put them back in Land. I've got few Legendary cards that's too expensive to level up. So this'll be a huge opportunity for me to get more out of my NFTs.
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Yes land will add a totaly new layer to Splinterlands gaming .... exciting times
I wish I still had a lot of my alpha cards, but I got rid of most of them a long time ago. Who knew things were going to go quite the way they did... It looks like you have a really sound strategy here!
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Well if you need some Alpha packs to max them, you know where to go... :)
How many you have?
I see the photo now ... 492 :)
Very conclusive.
Splinterlands makes it easy to earn on a daily .
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Thanks!
All really good points, great insight into this unique parralel economy where the incentive to stake powerful cards in Land, is in the cards for players!
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