Some Mishaps while Gambling for More Chest Rewards

in #splinterlands2 years ago


I did some last-day card power renting and was able to get 18 more chest loot last season. I was overall satisfied with the chest rewards I got, so I was planning to do it again this season... but with significantly less expectation and optimism. An astute reader reminded me that there's a good chance I'll lose DEC since I may get terrible rewards from RNG. The card rental prices peak, after all, near season end.

I can do nothing about RNG, but I could find ways to lower my rental expenses. I think I was successful on that front. I got some cheap rentals, but unfortunately, I encountered a few mishaps that had cost me more DEC and fewer rewards.

This season, given the setbacks, was my last-day rental still worth it? I am about to find out by calculating my gains and losses. Let me also share the unfortunate incidents I encountered as a lesson of caution for both myself and readers.

Renting fail #1: Renting TOO early

I have done last-day renting for card power a few times already. Peakmonsters make it so easy to do. If it was a tad complex, I wouldn't bother doing it. But Peakmonsters has this convenient card power bid feature that lets users rent cards in bulk. You can check out my post about how to do bulk rentals using Peakmonsters' card power bid if you are curious.

Having attempted last-day rentals a few seasons, I noticed that rental prices gets higher as the countdown for season end dwindles down. So this recent season-end, I wanted to place my rental orders right after the countdown goes past the 24-hour mark. Within this small window of several minutes, rental prices indeed were close to thrice cheaper than prices within the last few hours of the season. I got some cheap rentals, but I made a significant blunder ...

I rented some cards too early.

I placed my rental bid when the season countdown had a day and three minutes left. I assumed that my order would take 10+ minutes to process, so I thought my rentals would go over the last 24-hour mark. But much to my shock, I got some successful rentals seconds after I placed my bid. That spelled trouble for me. Even if it's just a minute beyond 24 hours, I will need to rent that card for another whole day. Or else it wouldn't be counted for season-end calculations.

Last-day power renting's main merit is that you'd spend less because you only had to rent cards for a day. My mistake made me spend more DEC to rent a few cards a day more. Unfortunately, those few cards were among the priciest ones in the batch.

Card Power
Rent Cost
290 DEC
107.8 DEC

I finally got my hands on a 50K power card! Kralus lives up to its legendary reputation with a double attack and amazing stats. I would love to use this in battles. The same is true for Fallen Specter. I got these two at a cheap rate averaging 167 CP/DEC . But it's a shame that I'd need to rent it an extra day beyond my actual need. That costs 397.800 DEC more for a two-day total of 785.6 DEC to keep these in my collection until season end.

Peakmonsters' card details with a total daily rent of 397.80 DEC

Note to self: Always start your CP Bid right only after the 24-hour countdown mark.

Despite the early-rental blunder, I was still able to successfully acquire cards for cheaper costs than I normally would. I made a 150 CP/DEC bid and was able to rent majority of my cards within that price range. Here's the tally of my season rental and comparison to last season. Note that a high CP/DEC rate is better, signifying you get more power per DEC spent.

Recent Season EndLast Season End
Total Rent Cost855.274 DEC1,744.65 DEC
Acquired CP from Rentals130,000137,500
CP/DEC Rate15279

Renting Fail #2: Untimely Rental Cancelation

My previous mistake cost me more DEC, but it also exposed me to another unfavorable event --- premature rental cancelation by the owner. The Fallen Specter that I snagged too early was canceled by the owner within the last few hours of the season. Prior to its cancelation, my total card power was above the required power for the Diamond III league.

I rented cards to reach Diamond III's minimum 250K power requirement

However, once the card was canceled right before season's end, my league dropped to Gold I league. That one card made a significant dent in my score since it had a worth of 17K+ power. I knew that the owner may potentially cancel the rental, but it was beyond my control, so there's nothing I can do about it. Had I rented the card within the proper timeframe, there was no possibility that the rental would be canceled prematurely. The minimum rental window is one day, so it's always possible to get the best timing to ensure the cards you rent will remain available during season-ender calculations.

Note to self: Again, always start your CP Bid right only after the 24-hour countdown mark.

The fall to Gold I league from Diamond III was a huge letdown. The difference between the two league's season-end rewards are ten loot chests. My aim for my last-day rental is to get 40 chest rewards. But after the unexpected drop, I was only able to get Gold I's 30 chests.

Some Unexpected Gains from Dailies

On the flipside, I got a few unanticipated gains from my last-day rentals amid the losses. I was so focused on the season-end rewards that I didn't realize that the large boost in my power rating made an impact in another area too.

I'd normally get four chests as daily rewards battling in the Silver I league. But with a temporary boost to Diamond III league, I got to claim ten chest rewards on the season's last day. That's the gap in daily rewards between the two leagues. I was incredibly happy with the six extra chests because one revealed a booster pack!


The power boost does not only affect the season's last day, but the next day as well. Even if my final league placement was only in Gold I, it's still quite high enough to give me a good starting league on season reset. If I didn't do last-day rentals and stuck to my usual league, I would fall back to either Silve III or Bronze I leagues. The quality and quantity of daily rewards for those leagues are much inferior. With my last-day rental effort, I was able to reset back to Silver I and gain two extra loot from the daily quest.


Summing it All Up: Did I Win or Lose?

If I purely relied on the cards I own, I would finish the season in Gold III with a 22-loot reward. I was aiming for Diamond's 40-chest rewards, but ultimately failed. I only got 30 chest rewards in the Gold I league. Here's what was revealed with the final eight chests:


Overall, the season-end rewards I got were a bit unsatisfying. I only got several potions, some basic cards, and less than a hundred DEC. The daily quest rewards I got before and after season-end were much more appealing. But now, let's take a closer look at my last-day rental spending and gains.

Needed CP Rent Cost-855.27-$2.99
Extra Rent Cost (Mistake)-290.00-$1.02
Extra Rewards from Season-End
Extra Rewards from Dailies
Net Gain-$1.32

The card prices were based on the lowest offers in the marketplace. The estimated pack price is based on Peakmonsters' pack value estimator. I used the estimated value if both Legendary and Alchemy potions were used. DEC was pegged at $0.0035 for demonstration purposes.

Surprisingly, I still got a little net gain. The extra rewards I got from my two dailies were so good that it overridden my terrible season rewards. I usually get okay-ish season-end rewards, but this recent one was a mediocre 30-chests lot. If it weren't for the lucky gains from my boosted dailies, I surely would have been at negatives. This paints a clear picture of potentially spending thousands of DEC on last-day rentals, only to get unsatisfactory draws.

However, had I not made any mistakes, I would have needed to spend 855 DEC only, which is roughly $3. I would have also gained 18 more loot from season end, and at least 8 more chests from the two daily quests. That's at least 26 more chests for $3. Having lowered the costs, my appetite for taking last-day rental risks grows. I will definitely try it out again this current season. But from my experience last season, I'm also definitely more grounded on my expectations. Mistakes or none, I realize I could lose DEC if I got bad luck on RNG.

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This is an interesting idea.
I might follow your method in the future for the experience. :)
Opening chests and packs are indeed exciting.

From an analytical perspective, however, its a really a gamble.
Risking $ 2.99 for a $1.32 reward is not that logical - its a not even a 1:1 risk reward ratio.

If you don't mind, I would love to see an analysis based also on the probability of drops and then compare it to your actual result.

Anyway, here's a slice of !PIZZA as an appreciation for sharing your experience.

Yeah, the excitement gained from opening chests is probably my biggest motivator for boosting my power. Since gains so far are so small XD

$2.99 was my base rental cost and I got rewards with an estimated value of $4.99.
$1.32 was my final net. It would have been $2 if not for my mistake.

Thanks for mentioning valuation of chests based on drop probability. I hadn't considered it before and was mostly basing it on the actual stuff I get. It's a good angle to look into. I'll probably include it in my next season's rewards post. But for a quick overview ...

Based on Splinterlands loot chest estimator, current chest value is $0.225. With the last season, I got 16 more chests. So that's 16 x $0.225 = $3.6. My actual rewards were higher. I got lucky by getting one booster pack with a 1.50% drop rate :)


Thanks for sharing! - @alokkumar121

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