As I write this, there's only a few days left to claim land in the Splinterlands FINAL Pre-Sale. However, I'm not going to focus TOO much on the plots available for the Pre-Sale. Why? Because nitpicking between 14 bucks and 20 bucks is like debating whether you should have bought Bitcoin when it was $100 or $200. Sure, buying cheaper is better...but when things go nuts, do you really think it will matter that much?
If you're reading this AFTER the pre-sale is over (which ends on December 31, 2020), do not despair. And definitely do NOT let saving 6 bucks prevent you from jumping all over an astounding opportunity.
If you have already purchased your claims in previous stages of the Pre-Sale...you've got your plots, your title, and your raffle tickets...you're patting yourself on the back and feeling good...
...well, I'm sorry. FOMO isn't done with you yet.
Here's the problem:
If you think you've got enough land, you probably don't fully understand what's happening.
So let's break it down, shall we? And before we go any further, let me remind you that this is ENTIRELY subjective opinion on my part. This blog article does not represent Splinterlands the company in any way. It is just me, explaining my thought process and personal journey through the ever-evolving digital landscape.
To many, Splinterlands represents THE best game in blockchain. Some of that is due to accessibility, compatibility, design, and a host of other reasons. But by and large, I think it's safe to assume that the majority of players get excited by the ROI (Return on Investment). The idea that you can buy NFT (Non-Fungible Token) digital playing cards, then sell them later for a profit is extremely cool.
The fact that you can also PLAY with those same cards and earn digital currency (which can also be sold for profit) is mind-boggling.
And now we're presented with an opportunity to buy Land in the same game...and use that Land to produce a wide variety of digital goods (including playable NFTs within the game). Okay, that...that's...insane.
Let's discuss just how CRAZY that is.
We'll start with some NFT basics. Like for any digital currency, you'll want to look at things like Scarcity, Liquidity, and Demand.
The island continent of Praetoria (where the land sale is currently taking place) is the most resource-rich area on the planet. Every plot sold, regardless of its geography type or rarity, can be considered PREMIUM.
As a result, some have taken to calling these plots "alpha land" (since many of the older players can recall that the very first "alpha" cards in the game continue to provide unique, innate bonuses to earning more currency rewards when winning a ranked match). These specific plots of land will provide bonus modifiers that no other land will have (assuming that someday other continents are ever explored).
There are, of course, only a finite number of Praetoria plots available. 150,000 to be exact.
And as of today, about HALF of them are already gone.
There are approximately 5,000 - 6,000 active users. If land plots were equally distributed to all active accounts, each account would have 25-30 plots each. NOBODY would qualify for a title, keep, or castle. On top of that, it is unlikely that anyone would be independently self-sustaining (we'll get into that after a bit).
But hold on. That's going by TODAY'S numbers. Since when have our numbers ever been stagnant? As Bitcoin continues to make waves in the media...as cryptocurrency continues to step closer and closer towards mass adoption...as large international companies continue to integrate blockchain and crypto into their products and services...an influx of new users stumble onto the scene, looking for UTILITY. Looking for easy, fun, and entertaining ways to either USE or EARN MORE of this magic internet money.
Splinterlands will be waiting.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if we doubled our user base next year. In fact, that might even be too conservative. But let's say we jumped to the 10,000 - 12,000 active user range.
An even distribution of plots with that number of people only equals 10-12 plots per person. If there was still land available to buy, a new player may not have the option to even spend more than $200. It's quite possible that they won't be able to get land at all.
If land prove as profitable as I think they will, existing land owners will demand absurdly high prices on the peer-to-peer marketplace.
As we already discussed, I think the scarcity of the land will make the land itself extremely liquid. I'm guessing that anyone grabbing up these premium Praetoria plots will have no issue whatsoever selling them later at a profit.
But that's not the liquidity I'm referring to.
I'm talking about what the land PRODUCES.
Let's say you end up with a common, run-of-the-mill Forest plot. Nothing special. It's not magic. It's not occupied by monsters. It's just some trees.
So you decide to construct a Saw Mill building on your land. And this dinky, little low-level Saw Mill starts spitting out Wood. Guess what? Wood will be a tokenized resource. You can trade it or sell it to other players on the open market. In other words, it's basically a digital currency.
Let that sink in.
The first time your Saw Mill produces Wood, your first instinct will be to whip out your phone and open the calculator app. 5 seconds later, you'll be figuring out how long it will take to produce enough wood to break even on the $20 investment you made to buy the land. 10 seconds later, I'm guessing you'll be researching how much it will cost to buy MORE land.
Cuz here's the thing: when land is finally implemented into the game, you know what's gonna happen. It's a GAME. And it's populated by crypto enthusiasts. That's a recipe for the most competitive launch you've ever seen.
Players are gonna be RACING in a MAD FRENZY to level up their buildings as FAST AS THEY CAN!
As a result, the price of resources is probably going to soar through the roof. You'll have to decide whether to re-invest your resources into leveling up your Saw Mill to create even MORE Wood...or...SELL the Wood to the players focused on the actual crafting.
Yeah, we haven't even touched on CRAFTING. Just producing a raw resource like Wood is already making land ownership sound downright AMAZING.
What do you think's gonna happen when land owners start popping out rare item and spell NFTs? How much do you think just ONE, SINGLE Gold Foil Legendary card will demand on the open market? Who knows, right? It's extremely speculative. However, we can look at the current market for Gold Foil Legendaries and possibly hazard a vague GUESS as to what the future holds.
To stay competitive in Ranked Play and Tournaments, the top players invest in things like Gold Foil Legendary cards. That's the way this works. Someone is gonna buy them. And someone is gonna SELL THEM.
Once more, we whip out the calculator and ask ourselves, "How long to make back my 20 bucks". How much you wanna bet the answer is "Not Long".
In fact, how much you wanna bet that as soon as the reality of the situation sinks in--land becomes one of the most desirable and coveted assets in blockchain?
I think it's obvious that once the Land expansion is released, the demand for plots will be overwhelming.
The demand for resources will be overwhelming.
The demand for player-created NFTs will be overwhelming.
So I guess it's not really a question of whether there will BE demand, but whether you will be positioned to fully benefit when the floodgates open.
Before I push any further, allow me to once more emphasize that nothing I say here is official. There is so much that is yet to be determined and still in the planning stages. But having said that, let me share my personal strategy in buying land...
I knew from the very start that I wanted to buy a Tract (100 plots) at the very minimum. If I could buy a Region, I would. However, I just bought a house (in the real world), and most of my finances had to revolve around that.
But I definitely knew that at least one Tract would provide me with a Keep and a decent chunk of plots that were joined together. For those who have been following the Splinterlands blog posts and AMA (Ask Me Anything) discussions, you already know that we expect there to be a Travel Time modifier. In other words, there will be a benefit to owning lands that are within close proximity. In theory, it will take less time to transport resources to the buildings that need it. And since time is money, it makes sense that you'll want to strategically place certain buildings near each other (to better optimize production).
Thus, there's a very good reason to buy Tracts and Regions. These are lands that will perform at maximum efficiency.
However, I believe there may also be a benefit to spreading out a percentage of your land to other parts of the continent. It boils down to geography. In order for there to be forests and rivers and lakes and mountain ranges...there HAS to be threshold for diversification. A plot by itself does not constitute a "forest". Rather, you need a large number of such plots (that are all the same geography type) to make an actual full forest. The "forest" plot you own is actually a small part of a much larger forest.
In other words, a Region owner will have a high amount of diversity when it comes to the land types available within their region. But will they have ALL land types? Maybe, maybe not. I suppose it depends on where their region lies within the continent.
A Tract owner will have a medium amount of diversity, but will they have ALL land types? Probably not. I mean, it's always POSSIBLE. But I'm guessing it's going to be unlikely. Maybe 25% of the Tract will consist of Hill plots, another 25% are Mountains, 15% are Badlands, and so forth. You'll probably get a decent mix.
But there's 14 different land types. FOURTEEN! Each of the land types is capable of either producing different resources or constructing different buildings.
So my recommendation would be to purchase either a Tract or Region (whichever you can afford), then buy an equal number of claims as individual plots. That way, you have the best of both worlds. Half your lands will be joined (and thus benefit from reduced Travel Time), and half your lands will be sprinkled everywhere for the sake of diversity (and a greater number of geography types).
This will further increase your ability to be self-sustaining. To be dependent on other players for different resources means you will be subject to market fluctuations for those resources. If you want to minimize your dependency on other players, try to balance your land investment between "joined" and "floating" plots.
Bottom line: As more and more people realize the immense value that land represents, it's going to disappear very quickly.
If you've already bought some plots, try to buy a Tract or Region. If you've already bought a Tract or Region, try to buy a bunch of individual plots. You'll thank me later.
THE OTHER STUFF
You'll notice I didn't bother talking much (if AT ALL) about the Titles, Keeps, Castles, Raffle Tickets, Totems, etc.
That's because I wanted to keep things in their proper perspective. WITHOUT all those perks and extra fun stuff, Land is already a NO-BRAINER. One would have to make a pretty extreme argument based on blockchain, crypto, or the game simply failing or disappearing to cast any sort of shadow on the opportunity.
I'll leave it up to you to gauge the likelihood of any of those things happening.
But let's assume that blockchain, crypto, and the game are only going to grow...
Tossing in the "other stuff" (like titles, keeps, raffle tickets, etc) makes this stupid obvious.
It boils down to one simple question: How much can you grab before it's gone?
https://splinterlands.com?ref=nateaguila
Great article! You convinced me to buy more.
Yay! Hurry! Buy! Buy! Buy!
I once bought a part of the Brooklyn bridge and was declared a Madam, but that wasn't blockchain, so I don't know whatever ever happened to that. ;) It wasn't NFT.
Are you saying I should buy land?
Yes.
And nachos.
But get land first. Then the nachos.
Excellent! Like you, I bought one tract in the "second" round pre-sale (via a pool). I have also been considering buying individuals plots, partly because that will likely be the ONLY amount I will be able to afford. The issue now is how to PACE the purchase of individual plots. What do you predict will be the cost of "one plot per month" going forward for the next 12 months (after the pre-sale ends)? I will PROBABLY be able to afford one plot per month", justifying the purchase with a combination of the "gold" and "gold promo" and "guild" bonuses I get with my collection in daily battling. Then there will also be income from the 100 plots (tract) that can be factored into the equation. Do you CONJECT that the average SERIOUS player (like myself) with a collection of this nature : https://peakmonsters.com/@transcript-junky/collection plus 100 plots of land, would be able to sustain a "one plot per month" pace of purchasing additional land? Just curious as to whether you think this (what I believe to be fairly "modest") monthly ("dollar cost averaging") purchase would be FEASIBLE, all factors considered... Good post...
In my opinion, 20 bucks is an absurdly low price for what is being offered. And until ALL the land is sold, you can feel confident that the cost per plot will never rise above that. Buying land over the next 12 months (in any quantity or frequency) is a great deal--for as long as $20 land is available to buy.
Once all 150,000 plots have been sold, I predict the cost for a single plot (on the player-driven marketplace) will skyrocket. After the land expansion has been implemented in the game, people will quickly realize what they have and treat each one like a golden goose.
Ah. Yes, my main issues is "How long do you predict the land plots to sell for $20 USD each? That rough prediction will help me decide on the frequency of purchase. I've started at "one plot per month because that is what I believe I can FEASIBLY afford with my handful of sources of DEC, Hive, and other crypto income. I AM open to "two plots a month" or even up to "one plot per week (assuming I can find the funds). All of my crypto value is now in Splinterlands, so I will need to figure out a strategy of coming up with the $20 per plot (likely a combination of Hive post payouts, portion of daily DEC income, DEC from quest and season rewards, etc. Any thoughts?
I'm guessing that the $20 plots will sell slowly until either (A) an incentive or benefit is implemented that applies to land owners or (B) we get closer to land being made "live" in the game.
Of course, it's always possible that some whales start buying up land, triggering mass FOMO hysteria. That could happen at any time.
But you're PROBABLY safe for the next few months. But don't quote me on that, haha.
Hey Nate! I followed through, tonight at 11:30 pm (my time) in buying my first "one plot per month" plot of land. I'm glad you posted about this, as I had NOT SERIOUSLY been considering buying more land until I read your post and went back and forth with you. I will now be in the processing of figuring out how to offset the (current) 20,000 DEC cost of the "one plot per month) via my various DEC income sources, and will likely CONTINUE buying the one monthly plot for as long as I can come up with the cost of the plot each month. Another good thing about this kind of gradual buying is that it will keep us moving forward while we wait for the land to actually live, and so I think that, PSYCHOLOGICALLY, it's a good move. Thanks again for the push on that, and if the value of the land MOONS then you will have been partly the reason for that (for however many plots I am able to obtain going forward with this plan). Let's hope our general sense of the FUNDAMENTALS of the land are correct and that we end up benefitting, BIG TIME, as this thing evolves. Like, maybe the plot I just bought has a castle on it. That would be totally BITCHIN'... Peace...
Wow, that's awesome! And don't forget to check other markets too. Remember: Land plots can be tokenized and traded on platforms such as Hive-Engine.
Roger that. Whoa! Just saw that my swap.btc jumped up ~ $20 USD in value since yesterday! So my first plot is ALREADY paid off! Haha! By the way, which token would I trade in Hive-Engine for the land? I could purchase at least one of those so that the token will be on the top of my list of tokens in my Hive-Engine account. If you could give brief direction on how to buy "one plot" on Hive-Engine that would be very helpful, if possible.
Helpful response. I think that the goal of "one $20 US land plot per month" is a feasible goal for me until the price exceeds my ability to buy one plot per month. I will also be working on figuring out how to fund the "one plot per month" purchase (ex. with which token, from which sources (daily battle, hive post payouts, Guild and/or "gold" and/or "gold promo" bonus DEC, etc. It looks like the conversion of DEC to USD works out to roughly somewhere between 20,000 DEC - 21,000 DEC . I currently have 135,000 DEC in my in-game wallet, and I don't think it could hurt to kick things off by buying the first monthly "one plot per month" when the main sale starts tomorrow, and then spend the rest of the month working on recouping that amount. Based on my general sense of my income over time in the game I think that it WILL be possible to somehow recoup $20 USD per month via my regular activity in-game. Thanks for your input.
Wow, you could have used leofinance UI to post this. investment choices sometimes arises from having the right money at the right time as well. Cheers!
I used Peakd to post the article. Is it better to use the leofinance UI (other than for cosmetic reasons)? Are there some cool benefits? I don't post that many financial or market related things, so I'm a little in the dark.
Leofinance is the next big fun on hive, so anytime you post finance contents, you can use the UI to earn leo token, you can also invest in the token too. Its futuristic
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Ah, gotcha. I thought I just had to use the leofinance tag. So I've gotta use the UI to earn Leo tokens?
Yeah use the UI to earn more token, its a project worth the research by all means please take a look at it.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I see. Good to know. In the past, all I had to do was use the tag. I wasn't aware of that change.
I'm not convinced.
I purchased the cat in the sack several times with boosters (Beta and Untamed) and would have been better off waiting for others to open the packs and buying selected cards directly from the market.
My guess is that once the land is revealed some plots will indeed skyrocket in value but others might drop below the price of the initial offering. It's a gamble after all.
Also the exclusiveness doesn't lure me. The game needs to be playable and sustainable for players joining later, so just like Untamed came after Beta, another continent will come after Praetoria. And if things go as they did with cards, there will be a power-creep or at least a replacement of some sort for the out-of-print lands.
As a conclusion, I will/might get in on land once I now what I'm buying and then cherry-pick what I want rather than gamble for the jackpot plot. There is no need to hurry unless you intend to be among the top of the top players.
I can understand wanting to wait until land is implemented, and all the "cards are on the table", so to speak. At that time, it will be transparently obvious which land is good for which utility. And I think that makes a lot of sense.
Of course, that strategy only works as long as land is still available to purchase. Once all the plots are sold, it is my opinion that ALL plots will be valued at much higher than 20 bucks. In other words, it won't be the same experience you had with booster packs. Here's why:
Historically speaking, when we reach max circulation on a Reward card, that card is replaced with a new Reward card. When a booster expansion sells out, that expansion is immediately replaced with new boosters. There is a market full of different cards, all of which have some sort of overlap in functionality. The player picks and chooses what cards fit their play style. As such, there's always an influx of cards to purchase at one's leisure.
Now let's look at Land.
Yes, it's possible that more continents are explored. More plots may become available in the future. However, they will NOT be on Praetoria, and they will NOT benefit from the Praetoria bonus modifiers. And they will definitely not be as commonly introduced as character cards. After all, you don't need land to play the core game. At some point, you will need character, spell, and item cards to stay competitive. But land? Nope, don't need that at all.
Which is why we don't intend to introduce more land sales unless it really becomes necessary to do so.
Players without land will continue to do what they always do, most likely cherry-picking cards on the market that they need to play the game.
Meanwhile, the people with land will be setting up shop right there alongside Splinterlands, producing (and profiting indefinitely) over and over and over and over again.
You're right. It's a gamble. So I guess what I'm saying is: the odds are stacked HEAVILY in your favor on this one. Those are the best sort of gambles to make, right?
Very interesting article, I hope that my 10 plots will be enough for my collection, lands will open very interesting options for a good ROI imo but what i find very interesting is the need of summoners for those lands. If we need let's say 150000 summoners for all the plots the scarcity of summoners will be huge.
I'm not selling any of them just now, is possible to see skyrocket some of them soon...
That aspect of things is still being figured out, so it's hard for me to comment. However, I think it's safe to say that the land expansion is going to create greater demand for almost everything, including character cards and DEC.
Hey Nate,
Sorry to jump in with something a bit off-topic.
The current HiveBuzz proposal will expire in a few days.
Do you mind casting your vote for the proposal renewal we made for 2021 so our team can continue with its work?
https://peakd.com/me/proposals/147
Thank you. Wish you a happy Xmas 🎅
Vote casted.
Thank you Nate.
I wish you all the best for 2021! Have a Happy New Year ✨🥂✨
Very interesting Article, Thanks for sharing with community!
excelent nara aguila
Congratulations @nateaguila! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :
You can view your badges on your board and compare yourself to others in the Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word
STOPDo not miss the last post from @hivebuzz:
Thank you
very good article Nate! I didn't see it when it first came out, but I like the way you are thinking. Its a great game and now land can make it go to the next level. 2021 might turn out to be a lot of fun!!!
Definitely!