How much will Splinterlands Vouchers cost

in #spt2 years ago (edited)

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Source: Splinterlands

Splinterlands Vouchers

Splinterlands released details yesterday on how the long awaited chaos legion pack presale will work.

in order to have an orderly pre-sale Splinterlands will be issuing 1 million vouchers over 30 days, and these tokens can be used to buy Chaos Legion packs.

There are only 1 million packs at $4USD each that will be available in the presale, so there needs to be a rationing system like vouchers to ensure an even distribution of the packs, and to avoid what happened in their land sale where you needed to be online within 10mins of the land being launched to get some. This posed challenges for some in different time-zones.

So vouchers will be issued to those that stake SPS, the good thing is that they will be tradeable assets, so they will probably be traded on Hive-engine.

What are the numbers

So there will be 1 million vouchers issued over 30 days (33,333.333 per day) to those that stake SPS, and distributed in proportion to their stake.

Currently there are 94m SPS staked. So that means to get one pack you will need to stake 94 SPS, so for simplicity I am going to assume you need 100 SPS staked to get 1 voucher over the 30 days. The max supply is going to be around 250m SPS, so its possible the stake proportion increases.

why will vouchers have value?

the Chaos legion packs will be $4USD, and cost 1 voucher. So the question is, why would vouchers have any value? because you can simply after the presale at some point buy a pack for $4USD without a voucher. The details of when this will happen are not yet clear.

However there are incentives to buy the presale, they include

  1. 10% discount if purchased by SPS
  2. Participation in all the airdrops, with every 1m packs sold their will be an airdrop for people that previously purchased packs.
  3. The promo cards

The one I think will be the key incentive is the promo cards, for every 50 packs purchased you are guaranteed a promo card, and for every 1000 packs purchased you are guaranteed a gold foil promo card. These are limited print cards, with a maximum of 1000 gold foil promos, and a max of 20,000 regular promos.

There will be so much competition for those gold foil promos, that that will increase the price of vouchers.

One way to estimate the value

Whilst its unclear how valuable it will be for people to buy a voucher, there are some minimums.

The price of the voucher must rationally be above $0.40 USD, because by buying in the presale you have access to the 10% discount, so a 10% discount is $0.40 USD.

I am guessing though, that the FOMO on the promo cards will push the price up higher, and I think it might be based on the SPS price and the yield.

method 1 - SPS drop in price method

One way to think about this, is that the price of SPS will drop after the pre-sale back to pre-announcement levels. Therefore the price of SPS was $0.24 pre-sale, and that now increased to $0.35. So there has been a 9c gain, and if you need 100 SPS per voucher that means vouchers could cost $9!

method 2 - Reasonable yield method

Lets say SPS holders want a reasonable yield, because SPS is a volatile asset, they would want say 100% yield in addition to the SPS staking yield. This is a complete stab in the dark, and who knows what a reasonable yield is (I get 0.01% in my bank account, is that reasonable?).

If we receive a 100% yield, on $35. that means the price of the voucher would be $35 * 100% / 12 (for the 30 day airdrop period)

This means the price would be $2.91.

Concluding thoughts

so I have shown a few methods of calculating the price of vouchers, but really its anyone's guess, I am going to put it out there, I think it will be about $5USD. we'll see what happens, perhaps this post will influence the list price of the first few trades, perhaps not.

The one thing I think is certain, is that the price of vouchers will sky rocket near the end of the presale when people are just that few vouchers short of their promo card. This will likely happen as the staked SPS will keep rising and people's calculation of vouchers earned will be off.

this is all so exciting, and I like sitting back and watching the human behaviours and reflecting on that for the next release....

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I have no clue what voucher prices will be. Trying to predict such things in this game will make ones head spin. There's no logic just FOMO :) I see many guessing the same as you, $5(ish) vouchers. I can't wait to see what the actual price of them will be.

I'm also trying to figure out what the price of the vouchers will end up being and I think a lot is going to depend on the perceived value of the limited-edition promo card only being offered during the pre-sale. In order to get a guaranteed gold version, you'd have to get 1000 vouchers. If there's 500 players that want that guaranteed card, that will consume half of the pre-sale vouchers, leaving the rest of the players fighting for scraps. Plus a competition for the top 6 accounts that purchase the most pre-sale packs to be able to design their own Legendary Summoner, that will also cause a few whales to consume most of the supply of vouchers. All that means a voucher price spike is possible.

Right there with you that they should be worth $0.40 each but most likely it will be less than that perhaps $0.15 - $0.20 would be more realistic. Still huge potential for profit.

It think the FOMO will push it much higher than the discount offered.

If these vouchers hit the market at 0nly 15-20 cents each, I'd gladly buy 10-20,000 of them. That would value the GF limited edition promo card at $150 or less. I can't imagine those cards will be worth less than that on the secondary market unless the devs seriously nerf their stats.

judging by your comment, I think my $5 estimate isn't a bad one.. but we will see

That's a good point. If the packs are expected to sell at $20+ on the open market then a $4 pack would mean $10 on those vouchers would still be a heck of a deal.

If you see anyone selling vouchers for under a dollar, send them my way! haha

Pricing of the Vouchers is really insane, currently a Voucher costs more ($17) than a Chaos Legion Pack ($11) on tribaldex. Who are buying these overpriced vouchers then?

Hi @notak
This post aged well, as FOMO and emotion did indeed push the price to 5 dollars and beyond.
Now you can sell vouchers for 17 dollars and buy 4 packs when they are public and trade the hive for SPS in the meantime to stake and earn even more SPS and more vouchers!.

I have a question though, where is the post explaining which component is possibly worth more then the others in the air drop? there are only a few more days, but I figure it's worth it to maximize return.