On the eve of Hard Fork Day 2016, we are seeing some interesting price action, but I still remain cautious.
The anticipation has been killing a lot of people around Steemit over the last few days. What’s going to happen? Will power downs accelerate? Will the price fall to new lows? Is STEEM going moon? Will anything big happen at all? We just don’t know, but be careful about trading in this uncertain market. We won’t really have an idea of future price action until the hard fork is actually implemented.
So on that note, let’s take a look at the price action and keep things in context.
On the 7-day chart, we are seeing a fairly stable breakout. It’s really not a parabolic rise and the volume is still relatively low, but it is ticking upward. Notice the little jump at the right edge of the chart.
If we back out to the 1-month chart, the breakout is more evident. But we can also see that there is a small level of resistance approaching.
In the $0.24 - $0.25 range, there is a bit of resistance that extends back to early November and further back to October. A bit of good news is that old resistance becomes new support once the price breaks through it. We can see here that $0.20 was just tested within the last 24 hours and it held.
Here is the 2-month view of the breakout and the next line of resistance. Notice the low volume levels during the current move. This should not be disregarded, especially considering the hard fork tomorrow.
On the poloniex depth charts we can see our buy/sell orders shifting upwards. It’s not as noticeable on this chart, but there is a small sell wall around 0.000345 BTC, or approximately $0.26. At that level, there’s about $37,000+ of selling volume.
We’ll see if the STEEM price can continue through the $0.24 range. If it does, the next target would be $0.27 - $0.30, where there is a little more resistance based on previous prices, but not much. Beyond that range, the price can quickly move to new 2-month highs. But as stated several times this week, pay close attention to the volume and consider the changes that are coming tomorrow, December 6th.
Long-term investors: buy-in when you’re comfortable and don’t get too excited or too panicked by whatever happens. You’re in this for the long-haul, so don’t fret over the daily changes.
Mid-term traders: Be careful if you’re planning on trading before tomorrow. If this uptrend is confirmed after the hard fork, there is plenty of room to the upside, so don’t get greedy.
Day traders: Have fun and good luck!
Please see @mynameisbrian's post for some free images celebrating Hard Fork 2016!
Disclaimer: I am not a professional advice giver and this info should not be used for trading. I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, but it would not be prudent to use this for trading with real money.
*Charts are from coinmarketcap.com and poloniex and the STEEM internal exchange. Data is current as of 12:50pm EST, December 5th, 2016.
Follow me: @ats-david
Did you view my post?
(Sorry about shameless post plug)
This is clearly what is going to occur with 100% certainty!
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
I didn't...but I got you covered. I edited my post and added a link to your awesome images!
Well that is incredibly kind of you good sir.
I like your style @ats-david.
Nicely done, I think your analysis posts are improving each time. Level-headed approach. I think the probability is high that powerdown supply increases.
But steem is a much more attractive buy after the hardfork (long run). Bulls will be able to get long knowing that the supply won't hyperinflate and the power downs won't increase by 3% plus per week.
Starting to look a little more attractive on the charts.
Anyone's guess, we'll have to see the markets reaction once supply comes in. Exciting times!
Indeed, looking forward to seeing how this all shakes out! Since we've seen a nice little bull run up to the hard fork, my prediction is we'll see a sell off afterward in a classic "buy the rumor sell the news" scenario. Which would make me happy as I can then gobble up some more cheap Steem.
Or I could be wrong and the price could keep shooting upwards after the fork. Which would make me happy as I've accumulated a decent sized SP position already and plan to hold long-term. So it's a win-win! Either way I'll probably buy more Steem after the fork.
Time to grab my popcorn and settle in...
The way I see it, price went up with a limited supply. That changes with powerdowns. The changes are definitely bullish in the long run.
But holding liquid steem is also more attractive. I wouldn't be surprised if the power downs were held as liquid steem and not sold. So many variables, popcorn time indeed!
Wait a second...
Are you saying that my first posts sucked?
Biiigg time!! I could barely read them.
Just kidding :p
They're getting better and better... Honing of the glorious analysis skills :)
I've been out of practice for a few years and I want to keep it fairly easy to follow for the average, non-day-trading user. I might throw in something thrilling once in a while - like talk of a V bottom, or head-and-shoulders, or even Williams%. How exciting!
Lol, stop the madness!
Always interesting :-)
Very interestig, thanks for sharing.
Its hard not to get excited mate!
I know - but just try not to get too excited. Everything in moderation.
Trying!
I always like it when I can see graphs and some statistics. Thanks for sharing.
You're welcome. Thanks for reading!
I just accumulate by producing content. The price rise is nice but I am nervous that it would attract the folks who feel entitled again.
That's always a possibility. But there were/are still plenty of them while the price has been low!
Thank you for this analysis. It is very well described for new traders like me and advanced trader too. I appreciate the insight it has helped me make some decisions about what to do.
Oh, no! You're not supposed to make trading decisions based on my posts! What have you done?!
uh oh, I don't know, let me look at the outcome!
Yeah your right, I think I destroyed a city :p
haha no it actually worked out for me ^_^
Well, that was close. But now the price is dropping again.
Perfect works for me, I sold at the right time ^_^
that's how it's done. that ozcharts should take notes!
Все это интересно. Но может изменится в любой момент. Криптвалюта непредсказуема.
Well, sure. But what happened to the hamster?
As always, excellent compilation of data. It's very interesting to watch the rise over the last couple of days, and I'm excited to see where the next three months go.
My initial entry was at .15 cents and saw it only going up. After researching the project a bit more and using the site I converted my investment to steem power. I personally have a weak had so the power down feature is nice for me.