Hi everyone,
Well, the butterfly has died but it looks like a deep crab has emerged from its ashes. Will this deep crab signal a reversal in the STEEMBTC market?? It looks like we are going to have to wait and see!!
Case for the Bulls
If you have been following my previous analysis on this pair (please see comments), I mentioned I might see a deep crab forming and it finally completed! Usually, when a deep crab forms and support holds you see a reversal occur in the PRZ or [Potential Reversal Zone]. After watching price react quickly to the upside in the PRZ, combined with RSI moving north, it provided a good case for me to go long.
Also, I found some nice fibonacci levels that could act as support in the 0.0024 BTC area which gave me some extra added confidence.
Another case for the bulls occurred when a nice reversal candle, on high volume, with a large wick appeared on the 120 minute chart on Poloniex.
Here is where smart money could be buying and where the bears might be running out of steem ..or are they???
Case for the Bears
The saying "The trend is your friend" has definitely been the the war cry of the bears. The STEEMBTC pair has been in constant decline since July 17th, 2016. In fact, STEEM has been declining in a nice channel since the all time high.
The high on that date was near 0.00717 and the price of the STEEMBTC pair sits at 0.002467 BTC as I write this. This combined with all time lows, and lower low, after lower low, give the bears no reason to give up.
If the deep crab fails, I expect to see downside movement to the 1.618 projection in the 0.00179 BTC area. Since there is not enough historical data it is hard to predict where price is going to go and I am merely relying on fibonacci levels and harmonic patterns to give me predicted targets for these levels.
Self Criticism
After looking at the STEEM/BTC pair today I realized I was premature in my entry last night. I should have been more patient and waited for the Deep Crab to fully complete and for price to test all levels of the PRZ before entering my trade. This is a must in harmonic trading, as taught by the inventor of Harmonic Trading Scott Carney. Had I stuck to the rules, I could have obtained a much better entry and risk to reward ratio. What I learned from this is... always stick to the plan!!
UPDATE!!
It looks like steem is having a nice bounce here! Is this a real bounce, or just a dead cat?? Stay tuned..
Click here to watch my live trade in action!! Remember to hit the play button on the chart.
Please look at these other ideas on the STEEM/BTC pair by:
@najoh 12 August 2016 -Technical analysis STEEM / BTC / USD by najoh
@quant01 STEEM - Exactly on the target
@ozchartart $STEEM/BTC Daily Poloniex+Bittrex Technical Analysis Update #13 "Testing new grounds" Aug 12, 2016
Disclaimer
Please note: This is not financial advice and for educational purposes only.
Scott Carney is the inventor of Harmonic trading.
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You can see my live trade play out in real time right here. For other charts and live trades you can catch me on tradingview and of course you can follow me here at,
UPDATE
It looks like we have a possible Type 2 harmonic trade on the Deep Crab!!
This occurs when there is a retest of the PRZ and provides secondary confirmation of the reversal. I will buy more here in this zone and will adjust my stop losses accordingly.
Image Here
Please follow for further updates.
UPDATE 2
So far the bulls have been able to hold their ground and defended the low of the day at at the 1.272 fib projection at 00.00227.
Image Here
Watch this trade play out in real time right here.
The question remains who is going to win this battle, the bulls or the bears. Only time will tell.
Current price of STEEMBTC sits at 0.00243 BTC.
UPDATE 3
Image here
Are the bulls defending their ground??
UPDATE 4
View Image
After the bulls had a nice push to the upside we are seeing a pullback which is completely normal.
I expect more upside soon but remember with trading you can never be sure of an outcome.