I agree that looking at order book is fallacy. Here is much worse. There are 5,000,000 STEEM ready for sell on Poloniex, only 1,200,000 are listed. It's easy to check Poloniex account. If they don't care about powering up with huge inflation, what will happen after hard fork will be much worse.
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That's a good point. I'm looking for some of the larger users to be shaken out and take a chunk out, with that much supply hitting the markets we should see a nice spike lower. Bulls will squeeze the bears for the best price, that much is clear.
One good thing is that with the reduction in inflation the bulls won't be fighting an extra 5% steem per week. It will be carnage however, if everyone powers down the markets will need to absorb almost 8% market cap per week. Can't see bulls handling that straight off the bat, but a few weeks in with more liquidity it makes sense.
I'll personally be getting liquid and wait to see where I can accumulate once prices reach an equilibrium. Exciting times!
@recursive has a good take on the fundamentals https://steemit.com/steem/@recursive/feedback-on-dan-s-economic-changes-proposal-all-good-but-the-3-months-power-down-of-pre-beta-stake-is-a-giant-blunder
Thanks guys for the feedback. It may be partially a fallacy, but we need to wait for daily trading volume increase to confirm that.