The witnesses can fork current Steem, fork out the Steemit Inc stake, and having done both of that this new chain will effectively be rid of Tron's influence, yes. Of course, whether this new chain's token will be worth anything is a different matter.
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Anyone can fork Steem doesn’t have to be an existing witness
Yes, sure, but no one's going to support a random fork.
If forked before Justin sets up his own witnesses? Before anything happens and the ninjamine is forked out?
He would have to set up a whole chain from scratch. That might work.
Justin already has his witnesses set up on Tron. He doesn't want to set up any new chain or fork, just move everything over to Tron.