Exactly, the old Steemit Inc stake doesn't really matter. If Tron has exchanges on their side, a majority of stakeholders are likely to jump ship to the new Steem on Tron. The swap on Poloniex sets an important precedent here. It's basically a $1.7 billion network versus a bunch of randos, the odds are heavily stacked in Tron's favour. Obviously, Tron will never agree to status quo, they want to recoup their investment, so a migration to Tron is inevitable. The best outcome for current witnesses will be negotiating a truce and a more gradual transition.
PS: For a Steem Classic, that's where they'll need to fork out Steemit Inc's stake, otherwise Tron could take control of both networks.
The proposed SegWit2x bitcoin hardfork is relevant history here. A majority of centralized entities like exchanges and businesses initially supported the 2x hardfork. However, in the end the "bunch of randos" won out as the 2x hardfork was abandoned.
In general with blockchains, drastic changes are hard. Whoever wants to make a drastic change faces an uphill battle IMO. And especially if the majority of users support the status quo, I think forcing them onto a new system will fail.