Steemit! - A Speculators July 4th Trading Strategy - DANGER ZONE

So I missed out one glaringly obvious piece of the puzzle in my previous post.

https://steemit.com/steem/@wingz/steemit-a-speculators-july-4th-trading-strategy

the internal market...

I was basing my assumptions solely on the external mechanics ( I didn't fully understand the internal market), but what we're seeing here is a huge rally that I really didn't account for.

All of a sudden we have somewhere between $300-400k Steem Dollars flung onto the internal market. You can't get it out into the external market through a transfer for a week, you would also be taking the risk of the price being volatile and not knowing what Steem to Steem Dollar value you get out. You can however trade it on the internal market, and get out without the week wait - this has resulted in a few potential opportunities.

What are we left with now?

A pretty aggressive looking internal market trading at a premium to bittrex.

Someone figured this out early, this is the 60 minute chart for Steemit/BTC on Bittrex. Look at biggest green candle, there's a huge spike in volume around the time of the payout being released.

Now all of a sudden we're left with the wallet in Bittrex down for maintenance. Which means that you can't actually transfer over your Steem to Bittrex to sell for BTC. So there will be a temporary lack of selling pressure.

So given that information:

you've got a huge supply of SBD, just released
a very thin Steem/SBD market on the offers
someone bought a large amount of Steem on Bittrex early on
can't currently sell your Steem on Bittrex because of 'wallet maintenance'

What you're left with is an artificial pump situation, I'd be very cautious about converting Steem Dollars right now.

I'm planning to convert all my Steem Dollars into Steam Power, but I want to do it at the best price possible. I was about to jump on the Steem uptrend with my entire stake but the above reasons forced me to hold back a bit. Anyone else see the same thing?

Any clarification needed, let me know below.

EDIT: Immediately after my post

Openledger