This is an interesting analysis. I try to keep Steem/SBD/and steempower where they belong, as back burner considerations when thinking about the long-term success of Steemit. The long-term success of Steemit depends on humans, their interests, and their desire for community and the values that this platform represent. The currency will rise and fall, but if we're focused on building this new community, there's no way this doesn't eventually moon. The content here is top notch across the internet... usually.
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I agree that the foundation for our success will be found in the community that forms around this new platform and how accurately it can reflect our values in the way we want to associate and communicate.