RE: Reward Pool Analysis (Why your Rewards are Dropping and When it May Turn Around)

[beatminister]

Interesting read. If the prediction is correct, remains to be seen.
Especially for the longer term development. The number of active users is rising, and people are hoping for user numbers in the double or triple digit million range, like you see it on facebook or YouTube. But since the growth of Steem is limited to near 10% per year by the Steemit master plan, this will mean the reward pool has to be shared between those millions of users.
That would mean the single voting power value drops to next to nothing.
I wonder how this will play out in the future.

Comments

[financialcritic]

That is a possibility. If the total reward pool remains the same, then it may cause rise in Steem price. Steem to the moon!

[leongkhan]

There are two solutions to the scaling issue:

1. The inflation rate could be reset to the original 100% per year.

• Pro: Increased distribution and voting power of individuals
• Con: Dilutes early adopters

1. Rely on the increase in STEEM value that would come with mass adoption to compensate for the smaller STEEM rewards. The math helps show it:

• $1 STEEM at 20,000 daily active users
• x 10,000 for 20 million active users = $10,000 STEEM
• While a new user's (15 SP) vote is worth $0.002 today, that would be $24.10 today, without vote dilution from increased voting
• vote dilution would likely knock this back down to about the same level so a new user's vote would still be worth $0.002 but be a much smaller fractional value of actual STEEM

• Pro: Rewards early adopters
• Con: Hard for new users to gain SP without buying in at high prices

I'm sure there will be a discussion in 6 months to a year about how to solve this issue. I'm currently for option 1 but I will have to review the facts again when we get to that point.

[beatminister]

I think both options are questionable at best. The first one I would even concider suicidal. While keeping up the fassade inside the community, it would destroy the faith - and the value of Steem - in the outside world. Doubling the amount of Steem every year will lead to a hyperinflation after some years. The old chess board dilemma, you know.
And hoping that Steem rises in value... Well, hope is always good. But its not much of a plan, really.

[leongkhan]

Luckily we don't have to hope for the price of STEEM to rise with growth of the user base. We have pretty good evidence of that.

https://steemit.com/cryptoreport/@leongkhan/steem-fundamental-analysis-crypto-report

[beatminister]

I do not believe that crypto currencies are out of the woods yet. All crypto, not only Steem. Apart of some systemic problems inside the cryptos, there is a growing hostility of the central banks and other powerful entities in the financial sector towards cryptos. And they have the means to give cryptos a real hard time - if neccessary, by declaring it illegal.
So, I dont take a bright and happy future for cryptos for granted yet.

[liudasbutkus]

Or Steemit finally implements ads and start pushing different types of monetization ways and making money, which would naturally grow the value of the platform.

[leongkhan]

Very true, while I doubt Steemit itself will implement ads, several of our partner projects may and that could drive value into the entire blockchain.