You are spot on to a point. You have no guarantee of being upvoted if you reply to a top comment. But at least you are giving yourself a chance to be seen instead of being buried at the bottom of the comments where not nearly as many people will see your comment.
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The more you try to reply a great content for Op's post. The higher the chance you will get a jackpot upvote. That's why It will still better to comment from OP rather than riding with high voted from comments but you also had a point that if you know your reply on a comment will hit an upvote then better to do it.