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RE: Basic Game Theory: Why Steemit Whales Won’t Sell Past a Certain Point

in #steemit9 years ago

Game theory is a difficult subject to get right because of the psychological and emotional aspects of human nature. Humans are often irrational, especially when it comes to money, markets, and finance. The herding instinct and social mood plays a major role in markets as describe by elliott wave theorists and socionomic theorists. For instance, when a bear market is in effect, the market creates a negative feedback loop in which market participants decide to sell because they see the value of their account constantly decrease. The opposite happens in a bull market, which creates a positive feedback loop, causing market participants to buy for because of FOMO. This is believed to be an unconscious cognitive response that many people can't avoid, hence the reason why few people make money in markets.

My fear with steem is that the effects of a 100% inflation rate may exacerbate the negative feedback loop, potentially spiraling out of control to the downside. The obvious rebuttal to this is the ability to power up, but you still loose 5% per year technically due to monetary inflation from powering up. Steem is definitely an experiment with a ton of financial engineering and I believe there is a good chance that it could be the panacea that the market has been looking for. Technically it looks good, but human psychology could throw a curve ball. Only time will tell.