whales like @berniesanders which sales everything on poloniex are the reason for low price:
http://steemwhales.com/berniesanders?weekly
in next 2 weeks most people which wanted to leave platform quickly will complete their 13-week power down period. Price declaiming after hardfork16 (Dec. 6.) was actually expected.
It may be the case but I don't see how, considering the supply of steem contracted 90% after HF16. Where is the steem coming from that is being sold? No, it's not whales. There is about 1 million of SBD on the market, total market cap is 20 million of steem. Every time the steem price goes up, SBD contracts take a big share of the newly issued steem (and it's worse now with lower issuance rate). If Steem goes up in value 10%, SBD sells all of that to maintain the peg. The end result is every time new buyers come in and buy steem, push up the price, and then SBD eats all the gain. The people see lower and lower post rewards and they panic and convert to SBD, further compounding the problem. Sooner or later it's going to have to go or Steem is going to be forked to a non SBD form.
I think it's the 91 day power down from Dec-6 through Mar-7. Look at the bottom chart on this page: STEEM Exchange Flows. More than 10 times as much left on March 1 as came in, and the volume leaving was the highest it's been since the start of the year (by far).
Well, so I guess by the end of march this should stop then, right?
After that, and the price still keeps sliding and witnesses drop off the network because they are not covering costs. Then what?
Don't worry. There are people which care not only about money. If there will be a problem with number of witnesses, I can personally run 4 witness nodes on my single dedicated server.
Being a witness is also a privilege. If low price would cause some witnesses to resign, then I would prefer to have low price for some time.
From people which decide about future of whole network (whether to accept or reject particular hardfork) I expect more faith in end result.
If being a witness was a privilege, why do we pay them? Shouldn't they be paying us?
My argument against an interest accumulating derivative like SBD is economically sound, and the way it works now flies in the face of every other business practices of every banker on the planet. Liquid assets you charge interest. Illiquid you pay. SBD is liquid, SP is illiquid. SBD gets 3% interest now, SP only gets maybe 2%.
It's not any wonder at all that the price of Steem keeps falling, to keep this magical US dollars that somehow increase ahead of the rate of inflation (somehere between 2 and 8%), someone is paying for it. That's everyone holding Steem and Steem Power.
I don't want steem to die and you can already see on the Witness Leaderboard that backups are dropping like flies. It will be a crisis if the cost of running a witness is greater than the pay rate. You can be the first to volunteer to pay for keeping a dead network and paying interest on liquid assets contra to the laws of economics. I'm on a crusade about this now. It's not rocket science, but people have some superstitious beliefs about the Federal Reserve's shell game currency system, stopping them from admitting that logic is against their faith.
c'mon. Most of them earn much more earlier. They have money to "survive" this "though" period. If they will leave because being a witness is not profitable for them.. another witnesses will be happy to replace them. Most of witnesses which are running nodes do not care, that right now they are not in TOP19 and they probably spent more than they earn.
But when the top 19 pay rate drops below average VPS hosting prices for a witness, why would anyone want to run a witness? I'll be moving on to other pastures, a friend of mine has been talking about investing in a Dash Masternode token. If after this 'tough' period ends the price still goes down, as far as I am concerned, my assertion that SBD kills Steem will be confirmed and I'm getting out before it sucks up any more of my resources.
I sure hope so, but I guess the negative sentiment could create a self-perpetuating cycle that lasts longer.
People could start witnessing on their home computers if it came to that. I've got 4 steemd nodes running miners in linux VMs on 2 windows PCs. It's costing me nothing that I wouldn't have paid anyway. I don't really think it'll come to that, though. (knock on wood. ; -)
Right now I am just afraid, that this is a panic attack of someone who thought that Steem is a way to quickly become rich. So just in case, I will repeat myself: "Never invest more than you can afford to lose."
With that being said,
I am not saying that you are not right. What you could do better, with such open system like steem, in your post you should provide hard data and calculations about whole thing.
Your post looks very emotional. You might be right, you might be wrong, but for sure serious analytical discussion is always good. But please provide more data if you encourage people to talk about this topic.
One possible reasoning may be, that if we won't pay them, someone else will.
You just got me thinking... about that...
Flagged for trolling. You have no proof I am the reason for the low price. Keep it up.
It's not whales powering down that provides the bulk of the steem supply, it's all the holders of Steem Backed Dollars. It's about time everyone woke up to the fact that this derivative is killing Steem. The low value of Steem is why rewards are so low. I don't know why it's not obvious to everyone.
Also, just to be clear, these trolls have nothing to do with it either. Trolls are in every place on the internet, they are mainly just a nuisance.
In fact, the biggest losers out of this endless selloff of Steem are guys like @berniesanders who have put their money where their mouth is and support the system. I am now starting to get that feeling also, after buying steem at $0.098 two weeks ago I thought it was a bargain, and now it's down even lower.
ENOUGH!
Furthermore, since every other thing has already been done since HF16 to stop the leak of steem onto the market, I don't see how anyone can argue with a straight face that it's whales powering down or sharks who are trying to get out of Steem. No, it's all the people who are using Steem as a bank account for US dollars. You are only getting the benefits you already could get from your local bank for this central bank manipulated asset, but to boot, you are killing the Steem economy.
I have no problem with that you are selling what is yours.
and I can agree that the fact that you send money to poloniex doesn't mean that you actually sold that - so in that case you are right.
My point was that there are some people, that just powering-down faster thanks to increased speed. And some of those people have a lot of money to withdraw.
Conclusion is that price is falling right now because more people selling than buying (imo mostly because of 13-weeks-power-down-period).
I don't think that SBD has a reason for price falling.
Am I the only "whale" sending Steem to Poloniex?
no, you are not. That's why I agreed with you.
I used you as example, I used phrase "whales like..". I never said that you are the only one.
Good spin.