I had thought you seemed very intelligent based on my previous reads of your comments, but this comment seems to suggest otherwise. Whether the price of STEEM does rise or not is irrelevant.
The fact is, it might.
That is enough of a reason for someone to choose to receive payout, on the off chance that the vests they receive today might one day be worth 1000X more in future.
There is no potential risk of loss, so there is no need for a sensible unbiased analysis. We are not trading cryptocurrency here.
I feel that @dan's choice to decline payout seems to be a genuine attempt not to subtract money from a reward pool that is already very low. But, if you can tell me another reason why he would do such a thing, I am all ears.