Which splinter is the strongest one and what are the best counter splinters?

in #steemmonsters7 years ago (edited)

In my last statistic post about steemmonster, I found out that the Green team seems to be weaker than other splinter. Now I created a more detailed view.

The following data includes only the battles from the ongoing tournament (start date: 2018-11-26 14:00:00). I excluded all matches where the mana cap is not equal the mana sum of the used cards.
Thus, matches are counted in which both teams have used the optimal mana sum equal to the mana cap.

Results

The team win ratio shows how often a splinter has won. For matches where both splinter are equal, the winning rate is 100%, e.g. Blue vs Blue has a Blue team win ratio of 100%.

Blue team match statistics

Novice - Blue team

matchplayed matchesBlue team win ratio
Blue vs Blue70100.00 %
Blue vs Red12054.17 %
Blue vs Green10271.57 %
Blue vs White7352.05 %
Blue vs Black8933.71 %
Blue vs Gold1338.46 %

Bronze - Blue team

matchplayed matchesBlue team win ratio
Blue vs Blue279100.00 %
Blue vs Red41748.20 %
Blue vs Green51759.57 %
Blue vs White38255.50 %
Blue vs Black34839.37 %
Blue vs Gold3132.26 %

Silver - Blue team

matchplayed matchesBlue team win ratio
Blue vs Blue3889100.00 %
Blue vs Red560948.85 %
Blue vs Green502656.61 %
Blue vs White519651.83 %
Blue vs Black667344.25 %
Blue vs Gold80940.79 %

Gold - Blue team

matchplayed matchesBlue team win ratio
Blue vs Blue1426100.00 %
Blue vs Red182546.79 %
Blue vs Green174553.58 %
Blue vs White188546.37 %
Blue vs Black260440.98 %
Blue vs Gold64436.96 %

Diamond - Blue team

matchplayed matchesBlue team win ratio
Blue vs Blue380100.00 %
Blue vs Red51549.51 %
Blue vs Green41153.28 %
Blue vs White46852.56 %
Blue vs Black72142.72 %
Blue vs Gold38041.58 %

Champion - Blue team

matchplayed matchesBlue team win ratio
Blue vs Blue287100.00 %
Blue vs Red39347.07 %
Blue vs Green26659.02 %
Blue vs White36552.60 %
Blue vs Black38252.36 %
Blue vs Gold51846.91 %

Red team match statistics

Novice - Red team

matchplayed matchesRed team win ratio
Red vs Blue10551.43 %
Red vs Red49100.00 %
Red vs Green9156.04 %
Red vs White7847.44 %
Red vs Black10031.00 %
Red vs Gold540.00 %

Bronze - Red team

matchplayed matchesRed team win ratio
Red vs Blue42454.95 %
Red vs Red214100.00 %
Red vs Green46057.61 %
Red vs White34839.66 %
Red vs Black37329.22 %
Red vs Gold3324.24 %

Silver - Red team

matchplayed matchesRed team win ratio
Red vs Blue561750.79 %
Red vs Red3272100.00 %
Red vs Green440749.97 %
Red vs White486342.87 %
Red vs Black610236.86 %
Red vs Gold65636.43 %

Gold - Red team

matchplayed matchesRed team win ratio
Red vs Blue182453.23 %
Red vs Red1009100.00 %
Red vs Green144456.37 %
Red vs White158046.46 %
Red vs Black224542.94 %
Red vs Gold54946.99 %

Diamond - Red team

matchplayed matchesRed team win ratio
Red vs Blue51650.39 %
Red vs Red363100.00 %
Red vs Green45761.49 %
Red vs White43547.36 %
Red vs Black71246.21 %
Red vs Gold42746.37 %

Champion - Red team

matchplayed matchesRed team win ratio
Red vs Blue39352.93 %
Red vs Red362100.00 %
Red vs Green26564.91 %
Red vs White40847.55 %
Red vs Black46854.06 %
Red vs Gold58154.91 %

Green team match statistics

Novice - Green team

matchplayed matchesGreen team win ratio
Green vs Blue9536.84 %
Green vs Red11048.18 %
Green vs Green56100.00 %
Green vs White6841.18 %
Green vs Black10121.78 %
Green vs Gold1216.67 %

Bronze - Green team

matchplayed matchesGreen team win ratio
Green vs Blue50043.60 %
Green vs Red43144.55 %
Green vs Green264100.00 %
Green vs White38740.31 %
Green vs Black38125.20 %
Green vs Gold2222.73 %

Silver - Green team

matchplayed matchesGreen team win ratio
Green vs Blue504842.93 %
Green vs Red441449.68 %
Green vs Green2592100.00 %
Green vs White423643.15 %
Green vs Black529635.08 %
Green vs Gold62930.68 %

Gold - Green team

matchplayed matchesGreen team win ratio
Green vs Blue174746.31 %
Green vs Red144643.71 %
Green vs Green890100.00 %
Green vs White135745.62 %
Green vs Black210842.22 %
Green vs Gold46537.85 %

Diamond - Green team

matchplayed matchesGreen team win ratio
Green vs Blue41146.72 %
Green vs Red45838.43 %
Green vs Green259100.00 %
Green vs White36747.68 %
Green vs Black65147.00 %
Green vs Gold33838.76 %

Champion - Green team

matchplayed matchesGreen team win ratio
Green vs Blue26640.98 %
Green vs Red26535.09 %
Green vs Green107100.00 %
Green vs White24743.72 %
Green vs Black29444.90 %
Green vs Gold32640.80 %

White team match statistics

Novice - White team

matchplayed matchesWhite team win ratio
White vs Blue7546.67 %
White vs Red8560.00 %
White vs Green8374.70 %
White vs White38100.00 %
White vs Black6418.75 %
White vs Gold714.29 %

Bronze - White team

matchplayed matchesWhite team win ratio
White vs Blue37351.21 %
White vs Red34564.06 %
White vs Green38461.46 %
White vs White156100.00 %
White vs Black29124.05 %
White vs Gold2035.00 %

Silver - White team

matchplayed matchesWhite team win ratio
White vs Blue520047.71 %
White vs Red485856.77 %
White vs Green422356.38 %
White vs White2727100.00 %
White vs Black556332.32 %
White vs Gold57042.28 %

Gold - White team

matchplayed matchesWhite team win ratio
White vs Blue188853.60 %
White vs Red158053.42 %
White vs Green135854.34 %
White vs White968100.00 %
White vs Black216842.20 %
White vs Gold55249.28 %

Diamond - White team

matchplayed matchesWhite team win ratio
White vs Blue46947.33 %
White vs Red43652.75 %
White vs Green36752.32 %
White vs White289100.00 %
White vs Black62544.48 %
White vs Gold36744.14 %

Champion - White team

matchplayed matchesWhite team win ratio
White vs Blue36447.53 %
White vs Red40852.45 %
White vs Green24756.28 %
White vs White295100.00 %
White vs Black36844.84 %
White vs Gold54953.92 %

Black team match statistics

Novice - Black team

matchplayed matchesBlack team win ratio
Black vs Blue11366.37 %
Black vs Red9777.32 %
Black vs Green8482.14 %
Black vs White7283.33 %
Black vs Black46100.00 %
Black vs Gold1163.64 %

Bronze - Black team

matchplayed matchesBlack team win ratio
Black vs Blue32867.68 %
Black vs Red38272.77 %
Black vs Green40579.51 %
Black vs White29778.45 %
Black vs Black229100.00 %
Black vs Gold2138.10 %

Silver - Black team

matchplayed matchesBlack team win ratio
Black vs Blue667355.39 %
Black vs Red610062.85 %
Black vs Green528764.54 %
Black vs White555167.48 %
Black vs Black4879100.00 %
Black vs Gold91230.04 %

Gold - Black team

matchplayed matchesBlack team win ratio
Black vs Blue260059.00 %
Black vs Red224157.07 %
Black vs Green210857.69 %
Black vs White216457.81 %
Black vs Black2197100.00 %
Black vs Gold78138.28 %

Diamond - Black team

matchplayed matchesBlack team win ratio
Black vs Blue72157.28 %
Black vs Red71253.93 %
Black vs Green65352.99 %
Black vs White62755.50 %
Black vs Black746100.00 %
Black vs Gold52035.38 %

Champion - Black team

matchplayed matchesBlack team win ratio
Black vs Blue38247.64 %
Black vs Red46845.94 %
Black vs Green29455.10 %
Black vs White36855.16 %
Black vs Black298100.00 %
Black vs Gold50241.63 %

Gold team match statistics

Novice - Gold team

matchplayed matchesGold team win ratio
Gold vs Blue1464.29 %
Gold vs Red1384.62 %
Gold vs Green475.00 %
Gold vs White683.33 %
Gold vs Black742.86 %
Gold vs Gold00.00 %

Bronze - Gold team

matchplayed matchesGold team win ratio
Gold vs Blue3778.38 %
Gold vs Red2875.00 %
Gold vs Green4386.05 %
Gold vs White2968.97 %
Gold vs Black3070.00 %
Gold vs Gold1100.00 %

Silver - Gold team

matchplayed matchesGold team win ratio
Gold vs Blue80358.66 %
Gold vs Red65363.25 %
Gold vs Green61768.72 %
Gold vs White56257.30 %
Gold vs Black90769.68 %
Gold vs Gold133100.00 %

Gold - Gold team

matchplayed matchesGold team win ratio
Gold vs Blue64362.99 %
Gold vs Red54953.19 %
Gold vs Green46562.15 %
Gold vs White55350.81 %
Gold vs Black78161.72 %
Gold vs Gold202100.00 %

Diamond - Gold team

matchplayed matchesGold team win ratio
Gold vs Blue38258.38 %
Gold vs Red42753.40 %
Gold vs Green33761.13 %
Gold vs White36656.01 %
Gold vs Black52064.42 %
Gold vs Gold288100.00 %

Champion - Gold team

matchplayed matchesGold team win ratio
Gold vs Blue51653.10 %
Gold vs Red58145.09 %
Gold vs Green32659.20 %
Gold vs White54946.08 %
Gold vs Black50258.37 %
Gold vs Gold654100.00 %

Conclusion

The Blue team (water) is weak against the Red (fire) and the Gold (dragon) team. Blue is weak against the Black team below the Champion league.

The Red team (fire) is weak against the White (life) team. Below the Champion league, the Red team is also weak against the Black (death) and the Gold (dragon) team.

The Green team (earth) is weak against every other splinter.

The White team (life) is weak against the Black (death) and Blue (water) team. Below the Champion league, the White team is also weak against the Gold (dragon) team.

The Black team (death) is weak against the Blue, Red and Gold team.

The Gold team (dragon) is weak against the Red and the White team.

Summary for Champion league

splinterweak againststrong against
BlueRed, Gold,Green, White, Black
RedWhiteBlue, Green, Black, Gold
GreenBlue, Red, White, Black, Gold-
WhiteBlue, BlackRed, Green, Gold
BlackBlue, Red, GoldGreen, White
GoldRed, WhiteBlue, Green, Black

So it seems that Green/Earth is the weakest splinter and should not be used but for solving a quest. Is could be that Gold in combination with Green is strong. This is something, I will analyze next.

Sort:  

As far as I know it doesn't count for the quest if you play Gold in combination with green.

Posted using Partiko Android

Gold in combination with Green does not count for solving a Green/Earth quest.

So you should all the time reroll the green quest?

Posted using Partiko Android

So far I reroll every green, and sometimes blue (after a few tries), but sketchy with blue since you could get green lol

Posted using Partiko Android

I have no problem with blue, it is the splinter where I have the most good cards and tactics.

Posted using Partiko Android

Nice! I like blue, but my alrics still level 1 and I'm trying to not buy any cards. Got a level two Xia from packs somehow though

Posted using Partiko Android

Yeah my alrics is also still lvl 1, but I am still able to win games around 1100

Posted using Partiko Android

great analysis. Thank you!

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Grat analysis @holger80. You confirmed what I could see in the battlechain with red really OP in Champion + and Serpent having really limited countering option like mage (which do not always work given higher speed on red cards) or expensive money wise cards (like neb-seni to slow enemy team or shin-lo).
What do you think on this @glory7?

How did you extract data btw? From Peakmonsters I could see a rise in winning percentage selecting Red.

Very cool do you analyse API data or do you create your own database and then analyse?

Yes, I have the one million battles in my database. You need to know all trx from the custom_json transactions. There is a API to receive the battle result from a trx id.

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I wonder what the Green/Earth splinter looks like if you include a neutral sniper ... the native sniper (Spirit of the Forest) is a bit expensive in mana. Although, that alone doesn't explain it because the White/Life doesn't have a native sniper at all.

Wow Green splinter doesn't have a winning record vs ANY of the splinters. Surprised to see that especially considering the Spirit of the forest recent nerf. Maybe the nerf wasn't needed? Maybe green needs a buff in a different area?

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I have a theory why the Green splinter is so much worse then the others. In my experience most bots (and there are quite many in my opinion) only play with the green splinter. They only use 1 monster (a "Flesh Golem" in most cases) and therefore always loose.
For example @nicestbot

or @monster2000

As you see they have a really bad win/loose rate (about 1:4) and as they are playing quite a lot, I think they will also have quite a big impact.

Some of my battles with bots:
https://steemmonsters.com?battle=e6310df13ae97633305fa9c37501c5ed0006b1e4&ref=hawk399
https://steemmonsters.com?battle=192e87f98ce2b1629807bbfb19952fd046f5d006&ref=hawk399
https://steemmonsters.com?battle=abb3a234e574efcf7d200e41a9c753f939ff2ac8&ref=hawk399
https://steemmonsters.com?battle=984eb54a7a30f41b113f0f34099aaee5f2b7328c&ref=hawk399

I saw this too and exculded all matches where one player did not have used the maximum allowed mana.

Edit: forget a not

Posted using Partiko Android

Thanks for the answer, but why would you exclude the matches where one player used up all mana? This wouldn't exclude the bots I was fighting. Maybe you meant that you exclude all other matches where one player isn't using all his mana? Also I think this would give false positives. Maybe filter it for players that have a really bad Win:Loose rate (for example 1:2)?

I excluded all matches where less than the manacap is used. Maybe I was not clear enough. Example : mana cap is 15. When both player selected a team with 15 mana, it counted. But when one player has a mana sum below 15, I exclude this match.

Posted using Partiko Android

I forget a not above

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This is so awesome. Thanks for compiling this for us. I haven't actually played in a while (after a 15 game losing streak broke my spirits 😢) but I've been thinking of getting back into it. Will be fun to experiment based on this.