So by playing the game, completing quests and remembering some stuff I read from the devs, I just realized this: the rich rewards we are currently getting won't last forever. They may not even last another couple of seasons!
In short, using the info kindly provided by the official Steem Monsters account, I tried to figure how long can this go on: being able to win a beta pack per day AND get anywhere between 1-30 packs every two-or-so weeks.
Due to some unknowns from the devs' plan, I'm going to break it down in two scenarios.
* Rewards come from promotional packs
We know from this post that no more than 5% out of the total number of 900,000 beta packs will be used for marketing and promotional purposes. We don't know if league rewards (and quests) have been considered as „promotional” from the get-go, but it's the only number I have, so let's try to make use of it.
5% * 900,000 = 45,000 packs. Let's assume that ALL these are to be used for quest and league rewards.
Source
We can see that around 16,000 packs have been claimed up already in Season 1 (+a couple of days of S2). IF this is the case, the reward pool will diminsh really SOON, as it is a completely unsustainable incentive.
In this case, make every day count and get your beta pack every time you can.
* Rewards come from total pool of packs
First scenario was one where packs were as tight as they can be. Now, let's go to the complete opposite and see what happens if ALL beta packs in existence are to be used. Pinging between these two extremes is useful because it gives us a rough idea of how long is it likely that we continue getting these rewards.
Source
There are around 730,000 beta packs remaining, at least as of the writing of this post.
We also know that in Season 1 there have been around 3,000-ish packs claimed in quests and 12,000-ish as league reawrds.
At this rate, ALL beta packs in existence would dry up in 48 seasons. That's 24 months aka 2 years.
BUT.
Season 1 quests have been out just around for 25% of the season (27th-31th Oct). Extrapolate linearly, it means 12,000 quest packs per season. That means roughly 25,000 combined (quest+league) packs per season. That means 29 season, roughly 14 months.
That means that if nobody buys beta packs anymore, and nobody steps up their quest completion rate, but keeps it stable, then ALL remaining beta packs would last for little more than an year.
Obviously this is an absurd scenario, with absurd numbers. But even in this case, the beta pack rewards would dry up much sooner rather than later.
So every day counts and every beta pack counts. They will be gone really soon!
Video game betas last usually 2-6 months, hence these may be the rewards for the whole beta. OR rewards may change even starting with Season 3!
We don't know, the devs do. They showed us they know what decision to take for the best of the game and I'm sure that whatever they have in plan, it will bring Steem Monsters even closer to greatness.
I fully agree with you, now it's the last train calling if you want to be an "early adopter", after this, the rewards won't be so nice and probably will be much more expensive to build a good team.
The game seems to be successful in the numbers exposed but I think that we will see a huge evolution of it. Big things still are coming.
I actually found the original source of all those charts:
https://beempy.com/steemmonsters
700k beta packs remaining. Active players growing steady at a 45° slope. Things are evolving fast.
And crypto overall is still in an apathic bear market !!!
I can't begin to imagine what this game could be in 2 years time.
Wow this is a really interesting post. Thanks for this!
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